NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	74		Excitement	6.2 [577]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (BOS): +12.3%
Boston Celtics	84		Comeback	1.7 [896]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -27.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.02	13	56%	0.04	2	-0.03	13	85%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	10	35%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	14	50%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Jason Hart	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	4	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	6	37%	-0.03	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.19	-0.09	-0.01	14	20%	-0.19	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.01	8	67%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.05	-0.05	9	54%	0.12	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	7	71%	0.16	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	7	76%	0.13	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	16	50%	0.04	7	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	11	29%	-0.11	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	29.6	17.3	25.3	1.8	32.0	131.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +67.1%

SAC -6.8%

BOS +22.7%

SAC -33.0%

BOS +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	BOS	NBA	SAC	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.6	78.7	89.4	104.4
season	15.3	14.8		104.7	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		104.8	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.9	15.2	17.2	14.1	15.6
BOS	14.7	16.7	12.8	15.9	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	66	64	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.09	11	-21	32	14.9	17.2	-2.27	14.7	15.8	-1.09
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	44	44	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.08	8	-18	26	14.9	16.2	-1.29	14.6	15.4	-0.77
Jason Hart	19	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-6	2	14.8	15.8	-1.04	13.8	15.3	-1.53
Mike Bibby	80	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-4	-2	15.7	15.4	0.31	15.5	12.2	3.24
Brad Miller	78	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-4	-2	15.9	14.4	1.42	15.2	14.1	1.14
Kevin Martin	51	52	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.04	-22	12	-34	17.4	13.5	3.88	14.6	15.5	-0.95
Francisco Garcia	55	56	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.21	-16	6	-22	15.4	15.9	-0.48	15.0	15.1	-0.05
Kenny Thomas	77	77	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.27	-15	5	-20	15.5	16.3	-0.83	15.5	13.0	2.47

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	73	75	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	0	10	14.9	15.4	-0.46	15.5	16.1	-0.61
Delonte West	74	74	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.21	8	2	6	14.8	15.7	-0.86	15.8	14.8	1.04
Wally Szczerbiak	48	47	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.15	9	1	8	15.1	15.0	0.13	15.7	15.6	0.09
Raef LaFrentz	64	64	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.15	8	2	6	14.9	15.2	-0.26	16.0	14.9	1.05
Al Jefferson	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.10	6	4	2	15.1	15.0	0.09	15.0	16.1	-1.14
Kendrick Perkins	53	53	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	6	-2	15.0	15.1	-0.09	16.1	15.0	1.14
Tony Allen	40	39	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	4	2	15.3	14.8	0.57	15.9	15.4	0.52
Brian Scalabrine	31	31	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	7	-4	14.6	15.2	-0.56	15.6	15.6	-0.05
Orien Greene	27	27	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	12	-14	15.1	15.0	0.13	14.7	16.0	-1.23
Ryan Gomes	19	19	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	12	-14	16.1	14.8	1.29	14.7	15.9	-1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 86, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.9%
CHA 95, ORL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.93,1,1,1	93.4%
CHI 85, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1	93.3%