NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	85		Excitement	4.5 [937]		MVP	Austin Croshere (IND): +9.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	90		Comeback	1.2 [1094]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -12.4%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Croshere	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.00	13	60%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jeff Foster	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Danny Granger	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	16	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
David Harrison	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.06
Eddie Gill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sarunas Jasikevicius	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	11	38%	-0.09	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	14	40%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	7	28%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	9	57%	0.08	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	14	49%	0.07	2	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	13	53%	0.09	4	-0.07	12	100%	0.06
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.02	11	65%	0.08	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.7	30.0	15.6	24.4	2.6	45.4	143.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +38.5%

MIN +15.7%

MIN +5.8%

IND -13.4%

MIN +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIN	NBA	IND	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	15.6	94.4	98.9	104.4
season	16.0	16.1		102.3	101.0
opponent	15.9	15.5		103.1	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	18.7	18.3	17.4	12.8	16.6
MIN	15.6	13.0	18.6	14.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Gill	13	13	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-8	11	17.8	16.4	1.46	10.4	16.0	-5.65
Danny Granger	20	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-5	5	17.7	16.3	1.41	11.2	16.5	-5.28
Jamaal Tinsley	32	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-6	7	17.9	15.9	1.98	15.3	15.2	0.14
Sarunas Jasikevicius	32	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-2	-1	16.6	16.6	-0.06	14.5	15.6	-1.08
Jeff Foster	52	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-7	9	17.0	16.1	0.95	15.5	14.9	0.54
Fred Jones	61	62	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-8	11	16.0	17.9	-1.86	15.1	15.5	-0.37
David Harrison	37	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	7	-19	17.3	16.1	1.23	16.7	14.2	2.59
Austin Croshere	65	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-1	-3	16.2	17.7	-1.50	16.0	13.2	2.74
Anthony Johnson	65	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	3	-11	16.0	18.2	-2.27	15.3	14.9	0.43
Stephen Jackson	74	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	4	-13	16.2	18.4	-2.23	15.5	13.7	1.87

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trenton Hassell	73	72	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.22	15	-10	25	15.8	12.9	2.92	16.2	18.2	-1.96
Kevin Garnett	68	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.11	17	-12	29	15.4	14.8	0.60	16.1	18.1	-1.95
Wally Szczerbiak	86	84	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	15.1	16.8	-1.66	16.6	16.3	0.29
Eddie Griffin	75	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	-6	17	15.1	15.7	-0.63	16.6	16.6	0.01
Marko Jaric	68	68	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.25	5	0	5	15.0	16.0	-1.09	16.8	16.1	0.67
Ronald Dupree	14	14	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.03	1	4	-3	14.9	15.3	-0.44	17.2	16.5	0.73
Anthony Carter	34	33	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.28	-9	14	-23	15.7	14.9	0.76	16.4	16.7	-0.37
Rashad McCants	17	18	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	11	-17	13.8	15.6	-1.73	17.9	16.3	1.61
Mark Madsen	20	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.24	-14	19	-33	15.0	15.3	-0.30	17.8	16.3	1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 94, CHI 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.63,0.75,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
ATL 90, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
NOP 91, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.74,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	95.2%