NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	70		Excitement	5.1 [797]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): +6.3%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	1.4 [1029]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -12.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.04	7	71%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	20	42%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.04
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	7	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	0.04	17	47%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	9	56%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	15	44%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	59%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	17	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	15	34%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.4	32.4	17.6	24.3	3.4	31.5	140.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +19.3%

DET +7.6%

DET +26.6%

SAS -2.1%

SAS -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	17.9	17.3	15.6	86.4	102.4	104.4
season	16.3	16.9		106.0	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		101.4	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	20.4	15.7	17.3	18.1	17.9
DET	13.9	17.8	17.8	19.8	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	16.5	17.9	-1.39	11.3	17.5	-6.17
Beno Udrih	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	16.5	17.9	-1.39	11.3	17.5	-6.17
Fabricio Oberto	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-17	19	16.5	17.9	-1.39	11.3	17.5	-6.17
Nazr Mohammed	28	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-22	29	17.2	18.2	-1.03	18.1	16.8	1.24
Rasho Nesterovic	27	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.02	-3	-12	9	18.9	17.4	1.50	17.6	17.1	0.41
Tony Parker	64	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.00	-8	-7	-1	17.5	19.2	-1.68	18.1	14.1	4.05
Brent Barry	28	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	-6	-3	18.1	17.7	0.44	15.0	18.5	-3.51
Michael Finley	47	47	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-10	5	18.1	17.5	0.61	17.1	17.4	-0.30
Tim Duncan	65	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.04	-12	-3	-9	17.4	19.8	-2.44	17.6	16.3	1.28
Nick Van Exel	32	32	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	0	-15	17.8	17.9	-0.12	17.2	17.3	-0.09
Bruce Bowen	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.04	-12	-3	-9	18.0	17.1	0.92	18.1	13.5	4.57
Robert Horry	40	41	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.15	-24	9	-33	18.5	17.2	1.28	16.5	18.0	-1.51

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	46	43	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	5	5	17.6	16.8	0.79	17.0	18.8	-1.87
Tayshaun Prince	72	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-1	17	17.5	15.8	1.68	18.1	15.6	2.58
Ben Wallace	67	67	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.17	17	-2	19	16.7	19.6	-2.83	17.9	17.7	0.17
Chauncey Billups	61	60	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	5	5	18.0	15.2	2.85	17.7	18.2	-0.46
Maurice Evans	27	25	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.23	1	14	-13	18.9	16.5	2.39	17.9	17.8	0.10
Richard Hamilton	56	56	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.17	14	1	13	16.5	18.9	-2.39	17.8	17.9	-0.10
Carlos Arroyo	22	21	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	10	-5	15.2	18.0	-2.85	18.2	17.7	0.46
Rasheed Wallace	47	48	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.10	7	8	-1	18.5	15.7	2.75	18.7	16.6	2.10
Carlos Delfino	11	9	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	16	-17	15.8	17.5	-1.68	15.6	18.1	-2.58
Darko Milicic	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	11.3	17.5	-6.17	16.5	17.9	-1.39
Jason Maxiell	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	17	-19	11.3	17.5	-6.17	16.5	17.9	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.77,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.81,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 89, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
NOP 94, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,0.98,1	94.8%
DET 83, WAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%