NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	8.6 [181]		MVP	Mike James (TOR): +13.8%
Orlando Magic	90		Comeback	3.2 [202]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -21.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.12	0.02	10	62%	0.17	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03
Aaron Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	14	59%	0.20	3	-0.14	4	50%	-0.04
Darrick Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	4	25%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	17	45%	0.06	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.04
Rafael Araujo	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04	-0.07	0.06	0.02	12	47%	0.08	4	-0.11	8	37%	-0.09
Matt Bonner	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.14	0.00	8	28%	-0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	11	64%	0.18	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Stacey Augmon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	7	55%	0.10	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	10	42%	-0.04	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	10	50%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.2,-0.21	-0.21	-0.03	-0.14	0.05	14	53%	-0.04	4	-0.17	10	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.6	32.4	16.5	30.4	2.6	36.2	144.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +30.8%

ORL -13.7%

TOR +15.3%

TOR +6.6%

TOR +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	14.6	15.6	101.1	97.8	104.4
season	15.6	16.4		107.3	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.9	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.0	15.8	15.1	18.8	16.8
ORL	14.0	16.2	13.2	15.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	46	49	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.42	11	-9	20	16.3	17.4	-1.18	15.6	13.6	1.95
Jalen Rose	63	64	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.27	9	-7	16	17.2	16.0	1.22	15.0	13.9	1.08
Morris Peterson	82	82	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.51	-3	5	-8	17.3	12.4	4.88	14.2	17.9	-3.66
Darrick Martin	50	48	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.00	14	-12	26	16.9	16.8	0.08	14.7	14.6	0.05
Chris Bosh	79	79	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	3	-4	16.8	17.2	-0.37	14.4	16.0	-1.58
Mike James	41	44	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.45	-12	14	-26	16.8	16.9	-0.08	14.6	14.7	-0.05
Aaron Williams	31	29	0.06	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	-1	4	18.3	16.1	2.24	14.1	14.9	-0.84
Joey Graham	37	38	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	4	-6	15.1	18.0	-2.88	14.9	14.4	0.52
Rafael Araujo	26	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	11	-20	16.3	17.1	-0.81	14.3	14.8	-0.54

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	4	4	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.03	3	-5	8	18.0	14.5	3.51	23.5	16.5	6.96
Stacey Augmon	2	2	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	0	-2	9.5	14.8	-5.26	7.5	17.1	-9.56
DeShawn Stevenson	63	64	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-5	8	14.3	15.3	-0.98	16.7	17.2	-0.53
Tony Battie	79	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.25	1	-3	4	14.9	13.3	1.55	17.3	14.3	2.96
Grant Hill	74	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-4	6	14.6	14.7	-0.10	16.5	18.1	-1.59
Dwight Howard	69	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.40	5	-7	12	14.3	15.7	-1.46	15.9	19.7	-3.76
Pat Garrity	24	24	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.12	-5	3	-8	15.1	14.5	0.65	18.8	16.1	2.70
Steve Francis	65	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-1	0	14.4	15.1	-0.72	16.6	17.5	-0.87
Hedo Turkoglu	32	32	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.19	-9	7	-16	15.1	14.4	0.74	17.6	16.5	1.10
Jameer Nelson	48	45	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.39	-7	5	-12	14.9	14.4	0.53	16.9	16.8	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.43,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 91, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.3,0.35,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.28,0	91.7%
WAS 87, ORL 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.47,0.34,0.47,0.54,0.32,0.42,0	91.3%
SAS 91, LAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.69,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.47,0.52,0.33,0.02,0	91.1%