NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	88		Excitement	5.4 [754]		MVP	Devin Brown (UTA): +18.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	80		Comeback	1.2 [653]		LVP	Mo Williams (MIL): -24.8%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Brown	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.00	4	130%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jarron Collins	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	7	44%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Deron Williams	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	15	47%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	83%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Mehmet Okur	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	13	47%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Milt Palacio	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Owens	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	36%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	8	65%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	61%	0.11	3	-0.09	9	67%	-0.03
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.04	13	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.00	13	52%	0.07	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Jermaine Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25	-0.25	-0.21	-0.05	-0.02	15	25%	-0.14	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.3	27.6	16.5	36.5	0.7	30.2	135.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +57.2%

MIL -11.6%

MIL -3.4%

UTA +4.2%

UTA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	18.3	14.1	15.6	100.0	88.9	104.4
season	17.0	15.5		101.7	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.0		106.0	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	20.7	16.3	18.5	18.1	18.3
MIL	17.2	14.4	13.7	11.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	57	58	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.19	16	-8	24	18.7	17.5	1.27	14.4	13.6	0.79
Mehmet Okur	72	73	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.26	13	-5	18	18.6	16.9	1.63	14.7	11.6	3.14
Andre Owens	27	26	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	2	4	17.2	18.8	-1.57	12.2	14.9	-2.68
Milt Palacio	49	50	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	3	2	18.0	18.6	-0.57	11.6	17.3	-5.79
Devin Brown	65	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.15	5	3	2	16.6	23.1	-6.52	13.8	15.1	-1.30
Deron Williams	54	57	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	0	8	18.4	18.1	0.25	15.1	12.4	2.70
Andrei Kirilenko	30	31	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.01	5	3	2	19.4	17.7	1.66	15.8	13.3	2.55
Gordan Giricek	55	57	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	14	-20	20.2	15.1	5.04	15.6	11.6	3.94
Greg Ostertag	18	18	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	13	-18	18.2	18.3	-0.13	11.8	14.7	-2.88
Kris Humphries	13	14	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	15	-22	15.6	18.7	-3.12	13.6	14.2	-0.67

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	54	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-11	14	12.5	16.6	-4.04	17.4	19.5	-2.08
Jamaal Magloire	67	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-9	10	15.1	11.2	3.98	19.0	16.0	2.97
Mo Williams	73	72	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-10	12	13.8	15.4	-1.58	18.7	16.1	2.63
T.J. Ford	79	78	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-8	8	14.3	13.0	1.29	18.8	14.5	4.26
Jermaine Jackson	4	4	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-2	-4	14.2	14.1	0.12	14.0	18.5	-4.48
Dan Gadzuric	23	22	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	1	-10	11.2	15.1	-3.98	16.0	19.0	-2.97
Jiri Welsch	40	38	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	1	-10	13.1	14.9	-1.82	16.5	19.6	-3.17
Andrew Bogut	36	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	3	-14	16.6	12.5	4.04	19.5	17.4	2.08
Michael Redd	74	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	3	-14	14.8	11.1	3.73	18.5	17.4	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 93, NOH 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0	93.3%
LAL 104, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
SAS 110, VAN 97	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.43,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0	93.0%