NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	102		Excitement	7.3 [368]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +29.7%
Chicago Bulls	94		Comeback	1.6 [392]		LVP	Eric Piatkowski (CHI): -13.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.26	0.14	0.13	0.01	28	56%	0.29	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	11	67%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	72%	0.15	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.04	0.00	14	43%	0.09	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	10	54%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.05
DeSagana Diop	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.14	0.00	15	69%	0.30	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.00	10	59%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	92%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	8	39%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Basden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.05	-0.14	0.01	19	58%	0.01	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.02
Michael Sweetney	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	6	44%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	32.0	15.7	23.2	1.8	34.5	134.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +33.9%

CHI -7.0%

DAL +26.5%

CHI -7.9%

DAL +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	17.3	14.9	15.6	114.6	104.4	104.4
season	16.4	14.4		109.0	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.6		102.1	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.6	13.3	17.9	20.6	17.3
CHI	14.5	18.0	14.2	12.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	33	36	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.24	12	-4	16	18.4	16.6	1.82	15.2	14.7	0.47
Marquis Daniels	71	72	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.12	13	-5	18	17.0	18.2	-1.18	14.7	15.6	-0.87
Devin Harris	68	68	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	0	8	16.7	19.1	-2.37	15.3	13.6	1.75
Dirk Nowitzki	73	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	-1	10	17.2	17.8	-0.65	15.1	14.2	0.83
Keith Van Horn	36	36	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	0	8	18.8	16.3	2.51	15.6	14.5	1.07
Adrian Griffin	70	72	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	10	-12	17.4	16.8	0.62	14.2	17.8	-3.58
Darrell Armstrong	7	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.03	1	7	-6	17.4	17.3	0.16	10.4	15.3	-4.86
Jason Terry	33	33	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.06	-3	11	-14	16.3	17.9	-1.55	15.6	14.5	1.10
Erick Dampier	54	53	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	14	-20	17.2	17.5	-0.29	14.9	14.9	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Basden	9	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-6	4	14.7	14.9	-0.27	14.6	17.5	-2.92
Othella Harrington	14	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	-4	0	16.6	14.6	1.97	13.9	17.9	-4.06
Kirk Hinrich	6	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-7	6	12.5	15.1	-2.58	16.7	17.3	-0.61
Michael Sweetney	43	43	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.04	-3	-5	2	15.7	14.1	1.60	16.4	18.1	-1.76
Andres Nocioni	33	31	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-4	0	15.1	14.8	0.33	16.9	17.5	-0.58
Chris Duhon	58	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-9	10	14.7	15.3	-0.62	17.4	17.1	0.32
Eric Piatkowski	30	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	0	-8	15.9	14.4	1.48	16.4	17.7	-1.30
Darius Songaila	56	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-7	6	14.3	15.9	-1.61	18.3	15.6	2.64
Luol Deng	72	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	14.6	16.2	-1.64	17.6	15.8	1.81
Ben Gordon	77	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	14.9	14.9	-0.01	17.9	13.9	3.93
Tyson Chandler	52	53	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	-1	-6	14.7	15.1	-0.38	17.6	16.8	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.32,0.37,0.15,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.3,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.09,0.05,0	93.9%
MIL 89, IND 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.18,0	92.9%
MEM 99, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.06,0,0	92.9%