NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	4.0 [1029]		MVP	Gary Payton (MIA): +11.9%
Atlanta Hawks	74		Comeback	1.3 [457]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -9.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	5	108%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.02	0.02	5	77%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	15	66%	0.09	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	5	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	22	41%	0.02	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Edwards	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	9	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	38%	-0.02	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	0.05	13	47%	-0.05	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.6	27.3	16.7	25.2	2.0	29.2	124.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.0%

MIA +2.5%

MIA +1.2%

MIA +3.0%

ATL -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.4	15.6	109.1	85.1	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		106.1	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.3	20.1	16.6	16.5
ATL	17.4	16.0	16.7	15.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	65	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.23	22	0	22	17.3	14.4	2.86	16.3	16.4	-0.08
Udonis Haslem	57	58	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.19	19	3	16	16.6	16.4	0.29	16.4	16.2	0.19
Alonzo Mourning	62	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	7	8	16.7	16.3	0.39	16.6	15.9	0.63
Dwyane Wade	69	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.18	17	5	12	16.4	17.2	-0.78	16.8	15.0	1.78
Antoine Walker	54	51	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.00	10	12	-2	16.2	17.1	-0.84	16.7	15.9	0.82
James Posey	48	47	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	17	-12	17.4	15.5	1.92	16.6	16.1	0.40
Gary Payton	44	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	10	2	15.3	17.8	-2.55	16.8	16.0	0.78
Shandon Anderson	32	32	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.06	10	12	-2	15.6	17.1	-1.54	16.8	16.1	0.65
Jason Kapono	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	18.0	16.5	1.51	8.2	16.8	-8.51
Dorell Wright	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	18.0	16.5	1.51	8.2	16.8	-8.51
Wayne Simien	3	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	18.0	16.5	1.51	8.2	16.8	-8.51

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-17	12	12.0	16.7	-4.75	15.9	16.6	-0.75
John Edwards	12	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.19	-10	-12	2	16.6	16.3	0.25	14.7	16.8	-2.08
Marvin Williams	28	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-23	24	15.3	16.9	-1.54	14.9	17.4	-2.54
Josh Childress	52	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-12	2	15.5	17.7	-2.16	16.2	17.0	-0.80
Royal Ivey	45	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.19	-14	-8	-6	17.3	15.4	1.86	16.5	16.6	-0.16
Josh Smith	40	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.15	-15	-7	-8	17.0	15.9	1.12	17.2	16.1	1.09
Salim Stoudamire	42	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.08	-15	-7	-8	15.7	17.0	-1.22	15.8	17.3	-1.48
Joe Johnson	69	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	-10	-2	16.4	16.4	-0.03	17.0	14.4	2.65
Al Harrington	77	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-10	-2	16.6	14.8	1.77	16.7	15.1	1.63
Zaza Pachulia	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.10	-18	-4	-14	17.1	14.3	2.81	17.5	14.3	3.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, IND 76	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
BOS 101, NOK 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
GSW 90, NYK 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%