NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	7.2 [404]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +9.3%
Orlando Magic	80		Comeback	1.1 [1173]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -30.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	16	44%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	10	41%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,-0.03	0.05	-0.08	0.00	4	80%	0.10	1	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	0.04	5	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	14%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Wayne Simien	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	10	27%	-0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	10	47%	-0.03	4	-0.12	12	58%	-0.09
Dwyane Wade	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.31	-0.09	-0.21	0.00	20	42%	-0.19	4	-0.12	10	50%	-0.07

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.05	-0.02	3	83%	0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	14	47%	0.05	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.06
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	14	48%	0.04	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	8	48%	0.01	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.02
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	12	37%	-0.08	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	8	25%	-0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	34.0	16.4	30.3	2.5	37.9	147.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +23.1%

ORL +14.5%

MIA -14.1%

ORL +20.8%

ORL +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.6	89.5	92.0	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		106.1	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	15.7	16.3	16.6	16.5
ORL	16.2	15.6	17.2	18.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Simien	13	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-3	3	15.7	16.6	-0.91	14.5	17.2	-2.69
Dorell Wright	7	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	1	-5	18.3	16.3	1.98	18.0	16.7	1.27
Gary Payton	35	36	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.30	6	-9	15	15.8	16.9	-1.07	17.6	16.3	1.38
Antoine Walker	51	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.42	8	-11	19	15.6	17.7	-2.01	16.7	17.0	-0.34
Jason Kapono	14	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	5	-13	14.4	16.9	-2.52	14.0	17.4	-3.42
James Posey	38	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	1	-5	18.1	15.2	2.84	16.9	16.8	0.09
Jason Williams	70	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-6	9	16.9	14.4	2.49	17.0	15.9	1.10
Udonis Haslem	61	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	4	-11	17.1	14.8	2.35	17.1	16.1	0.99
Alonzo Mourning	69	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	1	-5	16.3	16.9	-0.59	16.8	17.0	-0.21
Dwyane Wade	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	2	-7	16.0	19.0	-3.03	17.0	16.2	0.76

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	70	68	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-7	17	17.0	15.9	1.10	16.4	16.8	-0.40
Dwight Howard	59	59	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-6	15	17.1	16.2	0.90	16.5	16.5	-0.02
Steve Francis	68	67	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.31	5	-2	7	17.2	15.6	1.53	15.9	18.3	-2.38
Stacey Augmon	27	25	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.28	-1	4	-5	14.7	17.8	-3.13	16.2	16.6	-0.32
Tony Battie	42	41	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	1	1	18.0	15.8	2.22	17.8	15.3	2.47
Jameer Nelson	41	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.41	-9	12	-21	16.5	17.1	-0.55	16.5	16.5	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	68	69	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	0	3	16.4	18.3	-1.84	16.6	15.8	0.80
Pat Garrity	25	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.24	-5	8	-13	18.6	16.1	2.49	17.9	15.9	2.05
Kelvin Cato	35	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	2	-1	15.4	17.8	-2.39	14.9	17.5	-2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.82,0.68,0.79,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 85, CLE 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.89,0.73,1	93.6%
MIA 71, NOH 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.83,0.7,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.84,1	93.6%
MIL 85, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.72,0.86,0.94,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.4%