NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	93		Excitement	6.8 [478]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +30.8%
Dallas Mavericks	102		Comeback	4.3 [648]		LVP	Erick Dampier (DAL): -19.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.23	0.15	0.05	-0.03	17	72%	0.32	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.08	0.02	10	79%	0.22	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Jon Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	8	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.04
Juwan Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Yao Ming	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	17	47%	-0.05	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.21	0.12	0.02	18	74%	0.34	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.18	0.12	0.04	19	69%	0.30	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	0	75%	0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.04
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	7	37%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
DJ Mbenga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	14	43%	0.05	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.04	-0.00	2	20%	-0.06	5	-0.13	6	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.3	29.6	17.3	31.4	2.5	32.3	144.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +21.9%

HOU -0.6%

DAL +21.5%

HOU -0.2%

DAL +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	16.7	17.2	15.6	108.1	121.4	104.4
season	16.1	16.4		99.9	109.0
opponent	15.6	16.1		102.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.5	17.6	16.9	14.5	16.7
DAL	20.4	14.4	14.3	20.5	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	39	39	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-14	19	14.3	18.6	-4.33	19.1	15.6	3.53
Moochie Norris	10	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-6	3	17.9	16.5	1.41	16.4	17.4	-0.96
Dikembe Mutombo	17	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-5	1	18.6	16.2	2.49	17.2	17.2	-0.06
Ryan Bowen	31	31	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	0.02	-8	-1	-7	19.5	15.0	4.48	15.2	18.4	-3.19
David Wesley	50	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	-3	-3	17.4	15.6	1.74	15.2	20.1	-4.88
Juwan Howard	51	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	17.4	15.5	1.87	15.6	19.5	-3.91
Stromile Swift	31	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-5	1	16.1	17.0	-0.87	19.4	15.9	3.55
Yao Ming	66	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-11	13	16.0	18.8	-2.80	17.8	15.4	2.35
Derek Anderson	58	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	15.3	19.5	-4.22	17.7	16.2	1.54
Luther Head	77	72	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.25	-14	5	-19	16.9	14.2	2.71	17.9	13.4	4.46

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	77	80	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.21	13	-4	17	17.4	16.0	1.35	16.4	20.2	-3.78
Dirk Nowitzki	72	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	0	9	16.7	20.2	-3.42	16.7	16.2	0.59
Josh Howard	70	69	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	1	7	16.7	19.9	-3.23	17.3	13.9	3.38
Marquis Daniels	59	60	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	0	9	16.5	19.0	-2.45	17.2	15.4	1.82
DeSagana Diop	26	27	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	1	7	18.2	16.8	1.38	14.3	17.7	-3.43
DJ Mbenga	4	5	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	2	5	7.7	17.7	-9.96	24.0	16.2	7.80
Devin Harris	45	47	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	6	-3	18.7	15.5	3.22	15.3	18.3	-2.98
Josh Powell	14	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	11	-13	20.1	16.7	3.40	15.6	16.9	-1.27
Darrell Armstrong	4	4	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	14	-19	15.0	17.3	-2.35	18.2	16.6	1.68
Erick Dampier	49	50	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	14	-19	17.7	16.6	1.09	17.4	15.7	1.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	92.1%
SAS 87, PHX 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.61,0.72,0.68,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.86,0.93,1,1,1	92.0%
NYK 100, NOK 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.56,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.85,0.87,0.98,1,1,1,1	91.9%