NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	94		Excitement	5.6 [723]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (SAS): +13.4%
Charlotte Bobcats	86		Comeback	1.2 [524]		LVP	Emeka Okafor (CHA): -16.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.02	7	71%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	20	60%	0.22	5	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	5	57%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Melvin Sanders	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	10	41%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	19	56%	0.06	5	-0.13	3	33%	-0.04

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	60%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	12	52%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	12	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	8	62%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	13	34%	-0.10	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	30.3	15.5	25.5	2.4	31.2	129.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +49.8%

SAS +10.5%

SAS +10.4%

CHA -18.7%

CHA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	14.9	14.9	15.6	95.9	90.5	104.4
season	16.3	14.8		106.0	100.5
opponent	15.4	15.6		104.6	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	11.9	14.1	15.2	19.0	14.9
CHA	16.9	14.8	13.0	15.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	86	84	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.14	13	-5	18	14.1	20.9	-6.86	14.6	17.8	-3.25
Bruce Bowen	74	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	6	-4	15.8	12.1	3.67	15.3	13.7	1.65
Tim Duncan	75	72	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	3	2	14.9	14.9	-0.02	14.5	16.3	-1.73
Manu Ginobili	62	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	2	4	14.9	14.9	-0.03	14.9	15.0	-0.08
Rasho Nesterovic	47	49	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	4	0	17.0	13.0	4.00	15.2	14.7	0.57
Nick Van Exel	54	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	0	8	15.0	14.8	0.19	15.1	14.8	0.24
Robert Horry	36	33	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	6	-4	15.4	14.6	0.73	15.5	14.7	0.82
Fabricio Oberto	16	15	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	6	-4	12.4	15.4	-2.94	13.3	15.2	-1.92
Nazr Mohammed	22	21	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	5	-2	11.5	15.9	-4.38	16.0	14.6	1.41
Melvin Sanders	9	8	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	8	-8	12.7	15.1	-2.46	12.1	15.2	-3.08
Beno Udrih	9	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	13	-18	17.3	14.7	2.68	17.6	14.7	2.92

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jumaine Jones	29	29	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-11	14	15.9	14.5	1.42	15.4	14.7	0.68
Keith Bogans	59	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-14	20	14.5	15.7	-1.16	15.7	13.5	2.11
Brevin Knight	49	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-13	18	15.3	14.5	0.78	16.2	13.5	2.62
Melvin Ely	40	42	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-7	6	16.4	13.9	2.51	15.8	14.2	1.51
Emeka Okafor	73	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-9	10	14.6	16.0	-1.37	15.1	14.3	0.75
Sean May	19	20	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	16.0	14.7	1.32	14.4	15.0	-0.63
Primoz Brezec	58	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	1	-10	14.0	16.4	-2.43	14.2	15.9	-1.71
Raymond Felton	46	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	5	-18	14.5	15.3	-0.78	13.5	16.2	-2.62
Matt Carroll	36	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	6	-20	15.7	14.5	1.16	13.5	15.7	-2.11
Gerald Wallace	66	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	3	-14	14.5	15.9	-1.42	14.7	15.4	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, GSW 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.21,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.13,0.08,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	95.0%
MIN 100, BKN 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
DET 83, IND 65	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%