NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	2.9 [1226]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +10.9%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.1 [1212]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -8.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Piatkowski	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	53%	0.00	2	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	58%	0.01	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.07	10	64%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jared Reiner	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	16	36%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	13	47%	-0.03	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	7	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	9	85%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	12	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	20	68%	0.10	6	-0.09	17	76%	-0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	10	56%	0.02	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.3	30.5	17.7	28.8	1.8	31.2	139.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.2%

MIA +2.4%

CHI -6.2%

CHI -0.5%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	15.3	15.5	92.5	110.6	104.0
season	15.1	15.7		100.1	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.1	16.6	14.4	13.9	15.5
MIA	13.5	13.4	16.8	17.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	50	52	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-25	32	14.8	16.4	-1.55	16.1	14.3	1.77
Eric Piatkowski	37	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-13	8	15.4	15.7	-0.31	16.5	14.4	2.10
Jared Reiner	23	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.15	-9	-9	0	16.8	15.1	1.71	14.5	15.5	-1.03
Jannero Pargo	59	59	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-19	20	15.0	16.5	-1.56	16.1	13.9	2.15
Ben Gordon	52	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-15	12	15.8	15.2	0.66	15.3	15.3	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	31	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-2	-14	16.4	15.1	1.32	14.0	15.9	-1.97
Tyson Chandler	57	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-8	-2	15.2	16.0	-0.75	14.8	16.0	-1.23
Chris Duhon	48	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.17	-18	0	-18	15.6	15.5	0.14	15.1	15.5	-0.43
Antonio Davis	53	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	-3	-12	15.6	15.4	0.24	14.8	15.9	-1.19
Andres Nocioni	55	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.17	-22	4	-26	15.8	15.2	0.55	15.1	15.5	-0.44

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	82	81	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.12	22	-4	26	15.1	16.1	-0.94	14.9	19.7	-4.84
Damon Jones	64	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	1	16	15.3	15.1	0.19	15.6	15.5	0.06
Dwyane Wade	62	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.26	23	-5	28	15.3	15.2	0.02	16.3	13.8	2.59
Alonzo Mourning	42	43	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.24	20	-2	22	12.3	17.7	-5.43	13.5	17.3	-3.85
Udonis Haslem	75	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	13	-8	16.0	12.5	3.50	16.4	12.8	3.62
Michael Doleac	36	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	12	-6	16.6	14.4	2.23	17.1	14.5	2.61
Keyon Dooling	48	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	21	-24	15.2	15.3	-0.03	15.4	15.7	-0.36
Shandon Anderson	46	47	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	15	-12	15.9	14.7	1.18	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	20	-22	12.5	15.4	-2.89	7.2	15.9	-8.66
Steven Smith	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	19	-20	16.5	15.1	1.35	18.5	15.1	3.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 74, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
ATL 80, LAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
PHX 98, NYK 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1	96.8%