NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	90		Excitement	6.5 [548]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIL): +23.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	2.5 [792]		LVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): -27.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Ruffin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Laron Profit	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.04	0.00	5	30%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	54%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	35	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	-0.27	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.14	-0.12	0.01	18	50%	-0.14	6	-0.14	12	67%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.13	0.01	11	83%	0.27	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.00	7	87%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	20	54%	0.07	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	13	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	8	28%	-0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	26.4	15.7	25.2	2.4	35.6	132.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.1%

MIL +17.7%

MIL +1.6%

WAS -5.2%

WAS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	13.7	17.1	15.5	95.7	106.5	104.0
season	14.7	16.0		104.7	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.4	16.5	11.6	13.9	13.7
MIL	17.9	16.3	16.7	17.4	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Laron Profit	48	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-9	9	12.6	15.0	-2.39	17.5	16.6	0.91
Michael Ruffin	10	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-3	-3	18.7	13.1	5.56	17.7	17.0	0.73
Brendan Haywood	74	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-10	11	13.4	15.1	-1.80	16.7	18.4	-1.74
Larry Hughes	86	86	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-10	11	13.7	14.0	-0.29	17.6	10.7	6.89
Etan Thomas	47	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-4	-1	14.5	13.0	1.51	17.7	16.4	1.29
Gilbert Arenas	88	88	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-4	-1	13.9	11.3	2.56	17.1	16.8	0.30
Jared Jeffries	61	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	2	-13	12.8	15.5	-2.79	16.8	17.5	-0.67
Steve Blake	56	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.10	-20	11	-31	14.6	12.5	2.07	15.9	18.7	-2.77

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	60	61	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-7	23	16.5	18.1	-1.51	14.3	12.6	1.69
Desmond Mason	84	83	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	0	9	17.0	17.4	-0.40	14.3	9.8	4.43
Joe Smith	68	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	5	-1	17.4	16.3	1.05	12.9	16.0	-3.10
Toni Kukoc	22	22	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-7	23	16.3	17.3	-1.07	16.5	12.9	3.55
Michael Redd	66	69	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.31	0	9	-9	17.3	16.7	0.59	13.4	14.5	-1.07
Zaza Pachulia	36	37	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	0	9	17.6	16.8	0.86	16.1	12.2	3.87
Dan Gadzuric	53	54	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.30	-4	13	-17	17.2	16.9	0.24	12.5	15.4	-2.99
Erick Strickland	35	33	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.23	9	0	9	16.2	17.6	-1.42	12.9	14.2	-1.27
Mo Williams	33	33	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	16	-23	18.1	16.5	1.51	12.6	14.3	-1.69
Marcus Fizer	8	8	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.02	-7	16	-23	16.7	17.1	-0.37	11.4	14.0	-2.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.65,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.96,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 111, DEN 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.84,0.89,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.6,0.75,0.93,0.97,0.92,1	94.2%
CLE 101, ATL 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.83,0.79,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.89,0.98,1,1	93.0%
ATL 85, DAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.77,0.96,1	93.0%