NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	94		Excitement	9.1 [129]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +15.1%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	3.5 [609]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (POR): -27.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	64%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	12	57%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Richie Frahm	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.18,-0.01,-0.08,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	22	44%	-0.04	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22	-0.05	-0.21	-0.03	16	50%	-0.06	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.27	-0.15	-0.13	-0.00	18	44%	-0.10	5	-0.17	9	89%	0.04

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.13	-0.01	13	60%	0.20	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.13
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.08	-0.02	12	59%	0.18	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	17	49%	0.08	1	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	1	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	17	37%	-0.10	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.10	0.02	10	48%	-0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.4	33.5	16.6	26.0	2.5	39.2	147.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +27.6%

POR -13.6%

DAL +7.7%

DAL +28.5%

POR -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	18.5	11.8	15.5	98.9	103.2	104.0
season	15.8	14.9		101.2	108.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.4	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	19.5	19.2	17.0	18.4	18.5
DAL	13.2	10.4	12.3	11.6	11.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	82	80	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-4	4	18.5	18.2	0.37	12.1	10.3	1.79
Richie Frahm	30	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-8	12	19.1	18.2	0.92	12.0	11.8	0.19
Derek Anderson	2	2	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-2	0	17.0	18.5	-1.51	8.0	11.9	-3.92
Damon Stoudamire	83	82	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-2	0	18.5	18.1	0.45	11.9	11.7	0.17
Sebastian Telfair	76	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-1	-2	18.2	19.5	-1.25	11.8	11.9	-0.13
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	91	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	18.3	22.5	-4.20	11.7	14.2	-2.51
Viktor Khryapa	60	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.28	-8	4	-12	17.8	19.7	-1.92	11.4	12.6	-1.25
Travis Outlaw	51	51	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	2	-8	19.5	17.3	2.24	12.2	11.4	0.76

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	65	63	0.65	-0.14	0.79	0.50	5	-1	6	11.7	12.1	-0.33	19.1	17.3	1.80
Jason Terry	80	80	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.33	9	-5	14	11.6	12.9	-1.30	17.4	24.1	-6.64
Josh Howard	66	66	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	-2	8	11.6	12.3	-0.67	17.3	21.2	-3.98
Michael Finley	77	79	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	1	2	11.9	11.4	0.49	18.4	18.6	-0.18
Dirk Nowitzki	72	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	4	-4	11.7	12.4	-0.78	17.8	21.0	-3.24
Keith Van Horn	46	45	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	-6	16	11.8	11.9	-0.16	19.6	17.5	2.14
Shawn Bradley	28	29	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	0	4	11.7	11.9	-0.18	17.4	18.9	-1.48
Darrell Armstrong	15	15	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	9	-14	12.9	11.6	1.30	24.1	17.4	6.64
Alan Henderson	26	24	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.26	-12	16	-28	13.2	11.3	1.81	21.7	17.4	4.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.53,0.53,0.77,0.57,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.58,1	91.1%
CHI 75, LAC 77	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.35,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.35,0.38,0.46,0.64,0.43,0.73,1	91.0%
ATL 75, ORL 79	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.58,1	90.8%