NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	88		Excitement	6.5 [560]		MVP	Keith Bogans (CHA): +8.2%
Charlotte Bobcats	94		Comeback	1.6 [906]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -17.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryon Russell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Pope	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.07	-0.01	10	65%	0.06	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	12	40%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Earl Boykins	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	12	57%	0.04	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	6	17%	-0.07	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.07	0.03	17	51%	-0.01	4	-0.16	7	71%	-0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	11	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Bernard Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Theron Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	11	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	16	57%	0.09	4	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03
Melvin Ely	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	9	43%	0.01	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	8	27%	-0.08	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.00
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	13	38%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	30.2	15.8	23.7	1.8	39.4	137.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +27.9%

DEN -15.2%

CHA +30.4%

CHA +5.5%

CHA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	15.5	93.6	98.9	104.0
season	14.8	15.5		103.8	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		105.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	14.3	13.2	13.5	14.1
CHA	14.7	16.3	15.6	19.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	1	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-3	0	3.0	14.2	-11.19	5.0	16.6	-11.63
Bryon Russell	33	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-11	16	12.7	14.8	-2.12	17.1	16.0	1.10
Earl Boykins	73	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-11	16	13.4	16.3	-2.85	17.2	13.5	3.74
Francisco Elson	31	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-1	-4	15.4	13.4	1.96	16.3	16.4	-0.15
Carmelo Anthony	73	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.38	3	-9	12	14.4	13.1	1.26	15.7	19.0	-3.29
Kenyon Martin	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-5	4	14.4	13.2	1.27	18.0	11.8	6.28
DerMarr Johnson	55	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-3	0	12.7	16.1	-3.38	15.4	17.9	-2.46
Andre Miller	60	59	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	10	-26	15.4	11.6	3.80	14.7	19.2	-4.56
Marcus Camby	76	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	9	-24	14.2	13.4	0.85	16.9	14.7	2.16

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brevin Knight	49	50	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.22	16	-10	26	15.2	17.6	-2.36	14.9	13.1	1.76
Primoz Brezec	82	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-5	16	16.6	14.8	1.79	14.5	11.2	3.30
Kareem Rush	57	60	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	1	4	17.3	15.0	2.27	14.8	12.7	2.14
Melvin Ely	77	76	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.32	3	3	0	17.7	10.7	7.06	14.6	11.8	2.84
Gerald Wallace	73	72	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.23	6	0	6	16.0	17.6	-1.56	14.2	13.7	0.51
Keith Bogans	42	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-2	10	15.1	17.4	-2.36	13.5	14.5	-0.91
Theron Smith	28	27	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	6	-6	16.1	16.5	-0.45	12.0	14.9	-2.86
Jason Kapono	12	10	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	7	-8	13.4	16.8	-3.40	11.1	14.4	-3.33
Jason Hart	42	41	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	12	-18	17.0	15.9	1.18	12.6	15.2	-2.55
Bernard Robinson	13	13	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.11	-12	18	-30	14.8	16.6	-1.79	13.3	14.2	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.78,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 81, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.72,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.98,1	94.2%
PHI 89, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.99,1	93.4%
ATL 92, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.99,1,1	93.3%