NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	113		Excitement	10.2 [65]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +18.4%
Orlando Magic	109		Comeback	2.4 [343]		LVP	Speedy Claxton (GSW): -29.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.18	-0.01	0.16	-0.03	22	58%	0.29	4	-0.11	11	91%	0.13
Derek Fisher	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	-0.00	11	86%	0.25	2	-0.10	7	100%	0.07
Zarko Cabarkapa	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.01	6	72%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Luis Flores	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	7	43%	-0.17
Dale Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	12	48%	-0.06	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Speedy Claxton	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.17	-0.14	-0.01	15	20%	-0.23	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	8	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	11	73%	0.22	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	100%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	7	33%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.17,-0.08,0.04,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	0.02	27	47%	-0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	21	46%	0.01	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	4	40%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	17	41%	-0.19	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.8	26.2	15.8	26.1	1.8	38.0	132.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +46.8%

GSW +34.2%

ORL -19.3%

ORL -11.1%

ORL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	13.9	13.8	15.5	108.7	104.8	104.0
season	15.0	14.3		102.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.1	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.9	13.8	16.0	13.2	13.9
ORL	12.4	15.7	12.8	14.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	83	81	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.53	4	0	4	14.0	13.8	0.14	13.9	13.2	0.71
Calbert Cheaney	36	36	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-3	10	13.5	14.1	-0.60	13.1	14.1	-0.96
Speedy Claxton	87	85	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.38	3	1	2	13.6	15.4	-1.71	14.0	12.7	1.26
Jason Richardson	84	83	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	0	4	13.5	15.8	-2.32	13.8	13.6	0.19
Adonal Foyle	57	59	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.34	-3	7	-10	14.0	13.8	0.25	15.2	11.9	3.31
Dale Davis	44	43	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	-2	8	14.7	13.3	1.35	12.3	14.8	-2.54
Derek Fisher	93	94	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	4	-4	13.8	14.9	-1.10	13.5	15.9	-2.36
Luis Flores	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	4	-4	0.0	13.9	-13.92	6.0	13.8	-7.84
Zarko Cabarkapa	30	33	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.12	3	1	2	14.6	13.7	0.90	13.2	14.0	-0.82
Eduardo Najera	6	5	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.04	-4	8	-12	18.0	13.7	4.33	16.6	13.6	2.97

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	58	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	1	-6	13.8	13.7	0.17	13.3	14.7	-1.35
Dwight Howard	64	62	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	2	-8	12.8	15.3	-2.49	12.7	15.7	-3.00
Jameer Nelson	45	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-1	-2	15.0	12.8	2.13	13.8	14.0	-0.18
Stacey Augmon	26	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.15	-1	-3	2	15.8	13.1	2.77	16.7	13.0	3.74
Hedo Turkoglu	52	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.27	2	-6	8	12.8	14.7	-1.85	13.9	13.9	-0.04
Pat Garrity	14	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-7	10	14.3	13.7	0.60	14.1	13.9	0.16
Grant Hill	87	89	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.38	5	-9	14	13.8	13.5	0.36	14.1	13.0	1.08
Tony Battie	44	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-6	8	14.1	13.5	0.64	15.8	12.7	3.03
Steve Francis	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	6	-16	13.7	13.8	-0.09	13.7	14.4	-0.63
Doug Christie	56	56	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	3	-10	13.2	14.4	-1.16	13.3	14.7	-1.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.41,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.47,0.28,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 84, LAL 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.46,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.65,0.44,0.43,0.32,0.42,0	91.2%
UTA 92, NJN 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.28,0.33,0.28,0	90.9%
DET 87, ORL 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.53,0.15,0	90.8%