NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	3.4 [1149]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +6.1%
Seattle SuperSonics	84		Comeback	1.1 [571]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -10.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.02	0.03	14	66%	0.06	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.00	0.05	15	66%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	73%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Devin Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	7	36%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	25%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.05	8	58%	-0.04	1	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	13	53%	0.02	6	-0.07	6	83%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	54%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.04	6	62%	-0.04	2	-0.04	9	78%	-0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.16	-0.00	-0.06	17	36%	-0.04	5	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	11	25%	-0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	26.2	14.6	29.1	1.5	26.5	123.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.8%

SEA -3.0%

SAS +4.6%

SAS +16.5%

SEA -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	17.3	15.4	15.5	118.4	94.4	104.0
season	16.3	16.5		105.8	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.9	19.1	15.8	18.0	17.3
SEA	16.6	18.8	14.2	12.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	68	69	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	4	11	16.1	21.8	-5.70	15.8	14.2	1.57
Tim Duncan	67	68	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.16	20	-1	21	17.0	18.6	-1.64	16.6	11.6	4.97
Manu Ginobili	54	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.26	21	-2	23	17.8	16.6	1.17	17.3	12.3	5.00
Bruce Bowen	62	63	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.17	17	2	15	16.0	20.8	-4.81	16.3	13.2	3.20
Tony Massenburg	34	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	6	7	17.0	17.6	-0.60	15.8	15.2	0.59
Brent Barry	48	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.01	9	10	-1	17.5	17.2	0.33	13.1	18.3	-5.24
Devin Brown	38	41	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	18	-17	17.7	17.1	0.62	15.0	15.7	-0.68
Robert Horry	33	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	17	-15	18.9	16.4	2.49	12.7	17.1	-4.34
Beno Udrih	19	20	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	15	-11	21.8	16.1	5.70	14.2	15.8	-1.57
Sean Marks	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	23	-27	23.0	16.8	6.16	13.3	15.6	-2.23
Mike Wilks	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	22	-25	15.0	17.5	-2.48	11.0	15.7	-4.68

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mateen Cleaves	5	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	11.0	15.7	-4.68	14.7	17.5	-2.71
Danny Fortson	12	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-16	13	11.7	16.0	-4.24	18.8	17.1	1.78
Nick Collison	27	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-17	15	12.2	16.8	-4.58	19.0	16.6	2.42
Vladimir Radmanovic	60	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-14	9	14.4	17.4	-2.96	18.2	15.6	2.60
Rashard Lewis	71	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-16	13	15.7	14.3	1.43	17.4	17.3	0.09
Reggie Evans	29	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.15	-14	-5	-9	17.4	14.4	2.96	15.6	18.2	-2.60
Antonio Daniels	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.11	-13	-6	-7	14.7	16.3	-1.70	18.5	15.9	2.56
Jerome James	54	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.27	-21	2	-23	17.7	11.9	5.82	16.7	18.2	-1.50
Ronald Murray	72	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	-5	-9	14.9	17.6	-2.76	16.9	19.2	-2.36
Luke Ridnour	66	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	1	-21	16.7	11.8	4.90	16.6	19.6	-2.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
ATL 110, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
UTA 111, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%