NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	7.4 [370]		MVP	Eddy Curry (CHI): +22.5%
Chicago Bulls	111		Comeback	2.9 [753]		LVP	Bryon Russell (DEN): -10.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.00	7	80%	0.17	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Carmelo Anthony	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.02	20	65%	0.20	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.05
Nene	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	14	56%	0.06	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rodney White	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	9	60%	-0.01	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	47%	-0.06	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.06
DerMarr Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	2	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.15	-0.02	9	76%	0.30	2	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	16	51%	0.12	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	9	55%	0.09	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	8	63%	0.08	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	19	53%	0.12	4	-0.12	5	60%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	55%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.4	27.6	15.6	29.2	2.3	43.7	143.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +59.9%

DEN -0.9%

CHI +18.9%

DEN -30.4%

CHI +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHI	NBA	DEN	CHI	NBA
this game	14.5	13.7	15.5	105.9	107.8	104.0
season	14.8	15.1		103.8	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.6		98.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	14.2	14.2	14.9	14.5
CHI	13.5	13.5	14.6	13.4	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney White	7	9	0.09	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-7	10	7.4	15.0	-7.59	13.0	13.8	-0.82
Francisco Elson	28	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-6	8	14.0	14.7	-0.64	14.2	13.6	0.54
DerMarr Johnson	9	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-5	6	14.6	14.5	0.07	16.6	13.4	3.16
Earl Boykins	53	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.16	-2	-2	0	13.9	15.1	-1.20	13.5	14.0	-0.58
Bryon Russell	30	33	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	4	-12	14.4	14.5	-0.18	13.3	14.0	-0.65
Kenyon Martin	82	86	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-2	0	14.7	13.5	1.26	14.2	11.6	2.59
Greg Buckner	45	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	7	-18	15.8	13.4	2.39	13.5	14.0	-0.51
Andre Miller	95	97	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.46	4	-8	12	14.2	19.5	-5.32	13.7	13.8	-0.09
Carmelo Anthony	86	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.48	1	-5	6	14.8	13.0	1.76	13.6	14.6	-0.96
Nene	70	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	4	-12	14.8	13.7	1.13	13.6	14.1	-0.55

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	57	57	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-9	22	14.1	13.3	0.88	15.7	13.0	2.69
Andres Nocioni	69	69	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.33	10	-6	16	13.2	14.9	-1.65	15.0	13.4	1.55
Eddy Curry	38	39	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.44	3	1	2	13.7	13.8	-0.14	14.9	14.2	0.74
Kirk Hinrich	83	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	3	-2	13.6	14.2	-0.62	14.1	16.0	-1.84
Tyson Chandler	66	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.39	-1	5	-6	13.8	13.7	0.07	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Antonio Davis	51	52	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	-1	6	13.6	13.8	-0.20	15.3	13.7	1.60
Othella Harrington	43	42	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	-2	8	13.4	14.0	-0.52	13.5	15.2	-1.74
Chris Duhon	67	66	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	8	-12	13.4	14.4	-0.99	13.9	15.7	-1.82
Luol Deng	44	41	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.11	-14	18	-32	14.5	13.2	1.35	13.2	15.4	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.73,0.62,0.71,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, LAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.95,0.98,1	92.3%
MIA 80, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.99,1,1	91.5%
IND 77, CLE 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.84,0.96,1	91.4%