NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	5.3 [783]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +11.8%
Detroit Pistons	101		Comeback	1.8 [887]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -16.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	15	53%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	3	100%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	16	49%	-0.04	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Steve Francis	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	20	58%	0.01	6	-0.12	13	85%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.04	15	21%	-0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	9	80%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	18	59%	0.11	3	-0.05	8	100%	0.06
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	65%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	12	59%	0.07	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	14	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.4	26.6	15.8	30.4	2.4	33.6	137.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +49.4%

DET +5.3%

ORL -4.1%

DET +2.1%

ORL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	14.2	15.5	15.5	96.9	104.1	104.0
season	14.3	16.7		102.9	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.6	16.2	12.6	12.8	14.2
DET	14.4	14.5	15.7	17.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	11	13	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-9	11	15.6	14.1	1.58	15.1	15.5	-0.43
Tony Battie	28	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-8	9	14.7	14.0	0.67	17.5	14.6	2.83
Pat Garrity	23	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-6	5	13.6	14.4	-0.82	16.3	15.2	1.11
Jameer Nelson	61	61	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.26	6	-13	19	13.0	16.3	-3.29	14.9	16.5	-1.62
Steve Francis	86	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-6	5	14.7	11.0	3.65	15.5	15.3	0.17
Dwight Howard	75	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-3	-1	14.4	13.7	0.66	15.0	17.0	-2.03
Kelvin Cato	66	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	0	-7	14.3	14.0	0.35	15.5	15.4	0.02
Grant Hill	66	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	1	-9	13.6	15.5	-1.88	16.0	14.3	1.76
Hedo Turkoglu	69	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	0.01	-23	16	-39	14.9	12.6	2.29	14.9	16.7	-1.85

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	85	86	0.59	-0.10	0.69	0.18	14	-7	21	15.2	16.9	-1.67	14.4	12.7	1.70
Ben Wallace	74	72	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	0	7	14.5	18.5	-3.96	14.2	14.3	-0.06
Rasheed Wallace	76	76	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	3	1	15.8	14.0	1.79	14.9	11.9	2.98
Richard Hamilton	82	82	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	5	-3	15.1	17.3	-2.14	14.7	11.5	3.28
Chauncey Billups	74	75	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	5	-3	15.6	15.0	0.59	14.3	14.1	0.19
Lindsey Hunter	35	35	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	-3	13	14.9	15.7	-0.80	12.6	15.1	-2.52
Antonio McDyess	40	42	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	4	-1	17.9	13.8	4.12	13.8	14.6	-0.80
Darvin Ham	5	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	11	-15	13.4	15.6	-2.17	8.7	14.5	-5.72
Anthony Goldwire	14	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	10	-13	15.9	15.4	0.47	13.3	14.4	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.72,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
ATL 95, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
SEA 83, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.78,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.7%