NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	94		Excitement	4.3 [978]		MVP	Kurt Thomas (NYK): +7.1%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.3 [1040]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -11.1%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	15	74%	0.14	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Allan Houston	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Stephon Marbury	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.02	0.07	20	57%	-0.01	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.04	21	65%	0.10	3	-0.05	9	56%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	10	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.16	0.01	-0.04	19	46%	0.01	6	-0.12	8	62%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	3.4	27.1	16.5	23.6	2.7	28.0	126.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.7%

MIA +0.3%

MIA +23.2%

MIA +5.9%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	16.7	15.5	103.3	112.1	104.0
season	15.8	15.7		103.9	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.3		101.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.8	16.1	14.5	14.3	14.9
MIA	16.5	16.6	16.8	17.0	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	30	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-6	4	14.2	15.3	-1.10	16.9	16.7	0.16
Moochie Norris	12	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-1	-6	18.2	14.4	3.86	15.2	17.0	-1.78
Trevor Ariza	40	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-10	12	14.6	15.2	-0.58	17.5	16.2	1.30
Jerome Williams	32	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	0	-8	15.7	14.5	1.16	16.3	17.0	-0.72
Nazr Mohammed	52	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-6	4	15.4	14.3	1.13	16.9	16.5	0.46
Tim Thomas	56	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	2	-12	14.8	15.1	-0.30	16.9	16.5	0.35
Allan Houston	60	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-3	-2	14.5	15.7	-1.18	16.5	17.3	-0.87
Kurt Thomas	86	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-5	2	14.6	19.8	-5.18	16.7	16.7	-0.00
Stephon Marbury	87	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.28	-5	-3	-2	14.9	14.7	0.16	16.7	16.7	-0.00

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	67	66	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-6	20	16.4	17.6	-1.19	15.1	14.3	0.80
Eddie Jones	64	62	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	1	6	16.4	17.5	-1.04	14.6	15.5	-0.85
Damon Jones	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	4	0	16.5	17.8	-1.38	14.5	16.5	-1.99
Dwyane Wade	79	80	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	3	2	16.7	16.7	-0.00	14.6	17.0	-2.39
Udonis Haslem	59	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	0	8	16.6	17.1	-0.53	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	39	40	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	4	0	17.3	16.4	0.89	15.9	14.1	1.78
Christian Laettner	32	32	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	8	-8	17.1	16.6	0.53	14.9	14.9	0.01
Keyon Dooling	19	19	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	4	0	17.8	16.5	1.38	16.5	14.5	1.99
Michael Doleac	24	25	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.19	-6	14	-20	17.6	16.4	1.19	14.3	15.1	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 73, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
LAC 101, PHX 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
GSW 105, HOU 127	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%