NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	102		Excitement	8.2 [252]		MVP	Rick Brunson (LAC): +13.0%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	3.1 [272]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -27.3%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Brunson	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.13	0.01	0.13	0.01	12	56%	0.15	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Quinton Ross	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.03	0.04	-0.07	0.00	16	65%	0.03	2	-0.06	19	84%	0.12
Bobby Simmons	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	15	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Chris Kaman	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	0.00	4	30%	0.01	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Elton Brand	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	15	58%	0.01	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	8	85%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	14	57%	0.01	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.07
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	11	52%	-0.06	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	6	36%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.28,-0.27	-0.27	-0.12	-0.16	-0.01	21	42%	-0.17	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	29.0	16.4	31.6	2.8	39.8	146.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +30.1%

LAC +9.4%

LAC +24.2%

DEN -16.9%

LAC +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	DEN	NBA	LAC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.9	15.5	107.4	104.3	104.0
season	16.0	14.8		103.0	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	14.0	13.1	17.2	18.1	15.5
DEN	15.4	16.9	12.8	14.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	44	43	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-9	22	16.1	15.1	0.97	14.8	15.0	-0.25
Bobby Simmons	76	76	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-5	14	16.0	13.6	2.46	15.1	14.3	0.73
Corey Maggette	81	81	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.44	-1	5	-6	15.4	16.1	-0.70	14.8	15.5	-0.62
Elton Brand	78	77	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.44	-3	7	-10	15.2	17.1	-1.84	15.1	14.1	0.99
Rick Brunson	83	81	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.44	-6	10	-16	15.4	16.7	-1.28	14.4	18.1	-3.66
Lionel Chalmers	12	13	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.06	10	-6	16	16.7	15.4	1.28	18.1	14.4	3.66
Quinton Ross	35	34	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	3	-2	14.3	16.2	-1.91	14.3	15.3	-1.04
Zeljko Rebraca	33	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.13	4	0	4	16.4	15.1	1.25	14.2	15.3	-1.17
Chris Kaman	33	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	11	-18	15.2	15.7	-0.51	16.0	14.3	1.66

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	70	73	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.04	9	-13	22	14.8	15.4	-0.66	15.7	15.1	0.53
Bryon Russell	37	37	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.11	-1	-3	2	13.7	15.7	-2.02	15.5	15.6	-0.01
Francisco Elson	36	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-3	2	13.2	16.0	-2.81	14.1	16.5	-2.45
Rodney White	6	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-4	4	15.8	14.9	0.97	13.7	15.7	-1.98
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	7	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	2	-8	14.7	14.9	-0.23	14.6	15.6	-1.01
Nene	80	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-7	10	15.4	12.1	3.27	15.5	15.6	-0.03
DerMarr Johnson	45	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-3	2	15.6	14.3	1.34	16.4	14.8	1.56
Kenyon Martin	57	56	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.45	-4	0	-4	15.9	13.4	2.51	16.2	14.6	1.54
Earl Boykins	56	56	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.40	-8	4	-12	14.9	15.0	-0.08	14.6	17.0	-2.42
Carmelo Anthony	76	76	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.34	-11	7	-18	14.8	15.4	-0.64	16.2	12.9	3.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.46,0.45,0.31,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 87, PHX 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.84,0.77,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.47,0.28,0.45,0.27,0	91.4%
BOS 82, LAC 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.25,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.42,0	91.0%
TOR 99, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.08,0	90.9%