NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	9.5 [96]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +57.9%
Sacramento Kings	107		Comeback	44.5 [16]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -26.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.58	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.58	0.11	0.48	0.01	11	75%	0.60	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.07
Christian Laettner	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.01	5	60%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.06	0.01	13	68%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.06
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.13,-0.06,0.08,-0.02	-0.06	0.05	0.01	19	49%	0.02	1	-0.04	13	23%	-0.24
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	7	45%	-0.03	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26	-0.10	-0.15	0.01	21	48%	-0.15	5	-0.11	4	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,0.28	0.28	0.02	0.26	-0.00	18	50%	0.32	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.10
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	10	55%	0.12	2	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.13	-0.01	24	50%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.01	19	46%	-0.12	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.08,-0.2	-0.20	-0.01	-0.18	0.01	7	50%	-0.20	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.4	27.2	18.8	31.4	3.6	39.7	150.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +73.8%

SAC -10.6%

SAC -25.2%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	15.5	15.2	15.5	116.0	113.8	104.0
season	15.7	14.7		107.9	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.4	14.1	16.5	13.9	15.5
SAC	14.5	15.9	13.0	17.4	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Christian Laettner	37	37	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.44	11	-9	20	14.0	16.4	-2.45	17.2	13.9	3.27
Shaquille O'Neal	78	77	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-6	14	15.4	15.6	-0.13	15.8	12.3	3.52
Eddie Jones	84	85	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.48	9	-7	16	15.5	15.1	0.40	15.3	14.1	1.18
Damon Jones	72	71	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.59	3	-1	4	15.3	16.1	-0.83	14.5	17.3	-2.87
Dwyane Wade	87	88	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-3	8	15.6	13.7	1.88	14.9	19.7	-4.79
Rasual Butler	12	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	8	-14	14.1	15.7	-1.58	14.9	15.2	-0.31
Shandon Anderson	5	4	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	6	-10	15.6	15.4	0.15	20.2	15.0	5.29
Keyon Dooling	22	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.14	-1	3	-4	16.1	15.3	0.83	17.3	14.5	2.87
Michael Doleac	13	14	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.04	-7	9	-16	16.6	15.3	1.34	11.6	15.8	-4.16
Udonis Haslem	60	60	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.03	-8	10	-18	16.1	14.2	1.91	14.0	17.3	-3.36

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	29	29	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.28	-5	3	-8	14.8	15.3	-0.51	15.1	15.6	-0.56
Greg Ostertag	40	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-1	0	16.6	14.1	2.51	15.4	15.5	-0.04
Doug Christie	59	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	5	-12	14.9	15.6	-0.67	15.8	14.8	1.00
Brad Miller	39	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.39	4	-6	10	14.6	15.6	-1.01	15.7	15.3	0.47
Peja Stojakovic	86	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.46	4	-6	10	15.0	16.6	-1.58	15.7	13.6	2.10
Mike Bibby	89	90	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.52	2	-4	6	15.0	17.8	-2.77	15.4	16.2	-0.83
Maurice Evans	48	48	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.33	-7	5	-12	16.0	14.3	1.67	14.7	16.2	-1.53
Chris Webber	80	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.61	0	-2	2	14.9	16.9	-2.05	15.5	15.4	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 93, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.67,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.71,0.85,0.58,0	89.5%
DET 83, PHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.76,0.71,0	88.9%
HOU 103, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.83,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.58,0	88.6%