NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	6.1 [632]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +10.6%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	1.7 [872]		LVP	Keyon Dooling (MIA): -11.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	9	68%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	8	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Justin Reed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.01	8	56%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.04	9	67%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	3	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Walter McCarty	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	17	60%	0.01	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.01
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	11	55%	0.04	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.00	0.02	9	81%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	7	86%	0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.04	-0.04	20	62%	0.17	7	-0.14	13	85%	0.08
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	16	50%	0.04	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Michael Doleac	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	6	33%	0.00	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.3	31.5	16.5	27.4	2.3	28.6	136.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.8%

MIA +17.0%

MIA +2.6%

MIA +10.5%

BOS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	13.3	16.8	15.5	103.1	113.7	104.0
season	14.4	15.7		104.7	107.9
opponent	15.5	16.0		101.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.3	11.8	14.2	14.1	13.3
MIA	17.4	16.1	16.4	17.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	50	47	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	12.4	14.2	-1.75	17.3	16.3	1.01
Justin Reed	1	0	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	6.0	13.3	-7.34	0.0	16.8	-16.77
Ricky Davis	36	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-8	8	11.7	14.2	-2.55	16.9	16.7	0.13
Jiri Welsch	71	69	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-10	12	13.2	13.4	-0.21	16.1	18.5	-2.38
Marcus Banks	28	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	-3	-2	12.1	13.7	-1.58	15.5	17.2	-1.70
Walter McCarty	36	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-3	-2	13.9	12.9	0.99	15.2	17.7	-2.49
Paul Pierce	68	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-4	0	13.7	12.2	1.51	17.5	14.7	2.83
Tony Allen	29	30	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	0	-8	13.4	13.2	0.26	17.3	16.5	0.73
Gary Payton	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	13.3	13.2	0.10	17.1	15.5	1.61
Mark Blount	53	53	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	2	-12	14.2	12.2	2.03	17.4	16.0	1.38
Al Jefferson	37	37	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	-1	-6	14.2	12.7	1.49	16.2	17.1	-0.90

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	82	83	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	1	6	16.9	16.0	0.89	13.0	15.1	-2.11
Udonis Haslem	81	83	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	4	0	17.2	14.4	2.83	13.3	13.4	-0.10
Michael Doleac	54	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-2	12	16.9	16.6	0.28	14.1	12.1	2.03
Shandon Anderson	30	30	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	0	8	13.4	18.3	-4.87	13.3	13.2	0.09
Eddie Jones	72	75	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.23	2	6	-4	17.1	15.7	1.36	13.9	11.3	2.58
Damon Jones	66	66	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.23	1	7	-6	17.2	15.8	1.40	13.7	12.3	1.48
Keyon Dooling	34	35	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	3	2	16.8	16.8	0.04	11.9	14.0	-2.16
Christian Laettner	27	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	5	-2	17.0	16.7	0.38	13.1	13.3	-0.23
Rasual Butler	29	30	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	8	-8	16.4	16.9	-0.51	11.7	14.0	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.74,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 101, DEN 109	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.88,0.94,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
LAC 81, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%
ATL 92, NYK 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%