NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	107		Excitement	8.8 [168]		MVP	Quentin Richardson (PHX): +42.4%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	2.6 [242]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -24.7%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.42	0.07	0.37	0.01	13	63%	0.46	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.28	0.11	0.19	0.01	16	74%	0.35	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.06
Steven Hunter	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	5	100%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.11	-0.06	0.16	-0.00	11	62%	0.25	6	-0.15	2	100%	0.03
Casey Jacobsen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.1,0,0	0.05	-0.07	-0.02	11	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	16	25%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.27	0.27	-0.04	0.30	-0.01	18	55%	0.38	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	10	64%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	13	63%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	11	55%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.24	0.01	19	52%	-0.21	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	24.4	16.4	23.8	1.8	29.5	121.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +52.9%

PHX +18.4%

DEN -18.9%

DEN -1.8%

DEN -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DEN	NBA	PHX	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	17.4	15.5	116.3	115.4	104.0
season	13.5	14.8		112.9	103.8
opponent	15.6	16.0		102.3	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.6	13.4	13.3	16.3	14.1
DEN	15.2	18.7	17.4	18.8	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	78	78	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.56	5	-3	8	13.9	15.2	-1.33	17.7	15.7	2.00
Quentin Richardson	83	81	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.48	6	-4	10	14.2	13.0	1.20	17.0	20.5	-3.48
Steve Nash	69	69	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	-4	10	14.1	14.1	-0.06	17.2	18.0	-0.72
Joe Johnson	78	78	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.47	3	-1	4	14.0	14.5	-0.49	17.4	17.4	0.03
Amar'e Stoudemire	75	75	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	2	-2	14.7	11.3	3.43	16.5	21.7	-5.27
Bo Outlaw	11	10	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	3	-4	14.0	14.1	-0.10	15.9	17.6	-1.69
Steven Hunter	20	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0	2	-2	12.5	14.5	-1.96	20.7	16.5	4.14
Leandro Barbosa	23	22	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	6	-10	14.1	14.1	0.06	18.0	17.2	0.72
Casey Jacobsen	23	23	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.06	-5	7	-12	13.9	14.1	-0.23	18.7	17.0	1.78

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	22	21	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.03	5	-7	12	18.2	17.1	1.08	13.8	14.2	-0.36
Francisco Elson	36	37	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.05	4	-6	10	18.2	16.9	1.40	14.4	13.9	0.53
Bryon Russell	47	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	18.1	16.7	1.36	15.2	12.9	2.30
DerMarr Johnson	44	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	6	-14	16.7	18.1	-1.36	12.9	15.2	-2.30
Nene	71	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	0	-2	17.3	17.8	-0.50	14.0	14.4	-0.40
Andre Miller	79	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	17.1	19.2	-2.12	14.1	13.7	0.48
Kenyon Martin	75	75	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.42	-6	4	-10	17.1	18.8	-1.71	14.0	14.4	-0.40
Greg Buckner	81	83	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.52	-5	3	-8	17.5	17.0	0.46	14.1	14.0	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.29,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.67,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 104, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.14,0.15,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.26,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.71,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.28,0	91.0%
IND 81, CLE 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.4,0.54,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.53,0.64,0.46,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.1,0	90.5%
POR 88, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.28,0	90.1%