NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	113		Excitement	8.2 [241]		MVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): +21.8%
Golden State Warriors	109		Comeback	3.8 [142]		LVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): -24.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	8	76%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	9	70%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Francis	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.1	0.03	0.08	0.01	26	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	14	100%	0.16
Stacey Augmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	9	57%	0.08	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.10
Pat Garrity	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	5	73%	0.04	1	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Kasun	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	18	42%	-0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.12,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.12	0.02	17	67%	0.25	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.05
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	-0.01	14	67%	0.09	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.02
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.01	12	66%	-0.01	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.10	0.00	7	69%	0.00	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24	-0.24	-0.19	-0.07	-0.02	12	33%	-0.14	5	-0.11	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	32.5	16.4	24.4	2.5	36.2	136.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -5.2%

ORL +37.5%

ORL +22.4%

GSW -5.0%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.0	14.7	15.5	115.3	113.5	104.0
season	14.3	15.0		102.9	102.3
opponent	15.2	15.5		104.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.5	13.3	15.7	15.7	15.0
GSW	12.2	15.0	16.3	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Battie	72	72	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.45	13	-9	22	15.7	13.0	2.79	14.8	14.4	0.40
Stacey Augmon	68	69	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.38	14	-10	24	14.8	15.5	-0.66	14.7	14.6	0.07
Steve Francis	78	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	2	0	15.4	13.5	1.83	14.8	14.2	0.61
Dwight Howard	66	65	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.41	-3	7	-10	15.9	13.2	2.61	14.2	15.6	-1.38
Hedo Turkoglu	48	46	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	-2	8	15.5	14.5	0.96	15.6	13.8	1.79
Pat Garrity	33	32	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	-1	6	13.4	15.8	-2.39	15.8	14.1	1.70
Cuttino Mobley	78	75	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.27	-10	14	-24	14.8	15.7	-0.93	13.9	17.4	-3.52
Jameer Nelson	22	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.11	2	2	0	13.9	15.3	-1.42	14.9	14.6	0.34
Mario Kasun	25	23	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.02	-9	13	-22	12.7	15.8	-3.07	14.0	14.9	-0.83

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	86	88	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.24	10	-14	24	14.4	17.3	-2.93	14.5	19.6	-5.11
Jason Richardson	67	69	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.22	7	-11	18	14.0	16.3	-2.39	15.2	14.4	0.80
Eduardo Najera	7	7	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.10	-8	4	-12	16.6	14.5	2.04	11.3	15.3	-4.01
Speedy Claxton	66	66	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.32	6	-10	16	14.1	15.9	-1.83	15.2	14.7	0.53
Adonal Foyle	33	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	15.9	14.0	1.88	14.1	15.5	-1.48
Clifford Robinson	62	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-5	6	14.2	15.5	-1.23	15.5	14.1	1.47
Calbert Cheaney	25	23	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	2	-8	16.4	14.1	2.38	16.1	14.7	1.41
Derek Fisher	30	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	6	-16	15.9	14.1	1.83	14.7	15.2	-0.53
Troy Murphy	75	78	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.56	1	-5	6	14.1	16.6	-2.42	15.3	13.7	1.65
Mickael Pietrus	29	30	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.07	-18	14	-32	16.2	14.0	2.14	15.2	14.9	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.06,0.11,0.21,0.43,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 84, PHX 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.45,0.41,0.26,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.28,0	92.0%
CHH 98, IND 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.4,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.16,0.16,0	91.6%
POR 88, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.38,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.28,0	90.0%