NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	7.8 [310]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +19.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	93		Comeback	1.2 [620]		LVP	Earl Watson (MEM): -32.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.03	0.01	16	78%	0.29	2	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.00	10	64%	0.19	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	86%	0.14	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Mike Bibby	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.05	-0.05	0.10	0.00	10	35%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.04,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	17	58%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Greg Ostertag	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Darius Songaila	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	12	33%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	9	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.06,-0.1	-0.10	0.12	-0.22	0.01	14	83%	0.16	4	-0.26	2	100%	0.03
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.06	-0.18	0.00	24	42%	-0.21	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.08
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33	-0.33	-0.15	-0.17	0.01	15	46%	-0.13	5	-0.20	11	64%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	513.9	2.3	26.6	16.3	25.1	2.5	33.0	619.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +71.7%

SAC +2.6%

MEM -41.7%

SAC +16.7%

SAC +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MEM	NBA	SAC	MEM	NBA
this game	14.5	17.5	15.5	107.7	104.5	104.0
season	14.7	16.4		108.1	103.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		101.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.8	13.0	14.6	15.7	14.5
MEM	18.8	18.3	16.7	16.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	69	66	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.40	6	-1	7	14.3	15.3	-1.01	18.6	14.6	4.00
Greg Ostertag	36	35	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	0	5	16.0	13.5	2.43	16.9	18.0	-1.11
Bobby Jackson	35	34	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-6	17	14.5	14.5	-0.08	16.4	18.3	-1.90
Peja Stojakovic	78	76	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	-1	7	14.4	15.0	-0.58	17.7	16.5	1.16
Matt Barnes	28	29	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-5	15	14.9	14.3	0.51	17.2	17.7	-0.43
Doug Christie	76	73	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	11	-17	14.5	14.7	-0.27	17.5	17.8	-0.35
Darius Songaila	15	16	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	2	1	14.0	14.6	-0.61	15.9	17.9	-2.02
Mike Bibby	57	55	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	11	-17	14.3	14.9	-0.60	18.3	16.4	1.90
Brad Miller	61	61	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	9	-13	14.3	15.0	-0.69	17.2	18.2	-0.95

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	78	80	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.40	11	-16	27	17.4	18.7	-1.37	14.9	11.3	3.68
Shane Battier	56	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.35	8	-13	21	16.6	19.2	-2.63	14.3	14.8	-0.46
Pau Gasol	76	78	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-11	17	17.4	18.3	-0.91	14.6	14.2	0.41
Bonzi Wells	41	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	5	-15	15.6	19.1	-3.51	14.2	14.8	-0.54
Dahntay Jones	5	5	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	4	-13	25.0	17.1	7.92	12.6	14.6	-2.02
Mike Miller	59	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-2	-1	18.2	16.3	1.85	14.3	14.8	-0.49
Stromile Swift	32	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.10	-8	3	-11	17.6	17.5	0.10	14.7	14.4	0.33
James Posey	28	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.01	-12	7	-19	20.1	16.4	3.71	14.7	14.4	0.32
Lorenzen Wright	70	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	3	-11	17.6	17.1	0.54	14.3	15.1	-0.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.34,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 97, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.14,0.36,0.23,0.27,0	91.9%
DET 101, SEA 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.11,0.12,0.22,0.31,0.29,0.13,0.19,0	91.9%
TOR 103, NYK 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.27,0	91.7%