NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	7.9 [288]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +31.2%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.9 [880]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -24.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Mark Blount	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jiri Welsch	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Walter McCarty	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,-0.03	-0.02	-0.04	-0.03	16	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Tony Allen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.00	7	70%	0.10	3	-0.15	6	100%	0.05
Gary Payton	-0.12	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	13	48%	-0.09	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	6	36%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.25	-0.03	-0.21	0.01	10	57%	-0.17	2	-0.07	10	90%	-0.10

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.12	0.19	-0.01	10	80%	0.33	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.01	9	75%	0.11	0	0.00	10	30%	-0.10
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	9	47%	0.06	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	15	40%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	18	52%	0.00	2	-0.06	12	92%	0.05
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	9	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	8	28%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	453.1	2.5	34.4	15.8	30.3	2.4	37.3	575.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +67.3%

BOS -30.4%

BOS -1.2%

MIA +14.8%

BOS -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	13.8	15.0	15.5	104.0	106.0	104.0
season	14.4	15.7		104.7	107.9
opponent	15.5	16.0		101.1	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.0	12.7	17.0	11.6	13.8
MIA	13.7	17.3	12.3	16.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	19	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-1	0	13.8	13.8	-0.05	14.8	15.0	-0.16
Tony Allen	47	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.42	11	-13	24	12.6	14.9	-2.29	16.1	13.9	2.18
Kendrick Perkins	12	12	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	3	-8	14.2	13.8	0.48	16.2	14.8	1.45
Al Jefferson	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	0	-2	14.3	13.6	0.76	15.2	14.9	0.27
Mark Blount	38	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	3	-8	14.1	13.7	0.40	15.4	14.7	0.72
Jiri Welsch	47	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	1	-4	14.5	13.2	1.24	15.2	14.7	0.50
Ricky Davis	67	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.43	5	-7	12	13.6	14.3	-0.71	15.0	14.9	0.14
Raef LaFrentz	61	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.16	-7	5	-12	14.0	13.6	0.39	13.9	16.6	-2.76
Gary Payton	64	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	1	-4	13.3	14.8	-1.52	14.8	15.3	-0.49
Paul Pierce	81	80	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.49	-5	3	-8	14.1	12.8	1.22	14.4	17.1	-2.66

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	81	82	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.46	10	-8	18	15.0	14.8	0.16	14.1	12.7	1.35
Udonis Haslem	46	47	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.26	13	-11	24	14.7	15.2	-0.43	14.6	13.2	1.40
Shaquille O'Neal	82	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	-6	14	15.6	11.9	3.76	14.0	13.3	0.63
Eddie Jones	77	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	2	-2	15.4	13.6	1.77	13.6	14.6	-1.08
Damon Jones	45	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.43	-7	9	-16	16.0	14.1	1.91	13.0	14.5	-1.55
Wesley Person	61	61	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.29	-4	6	-10	14.5	15.7	-1.18	13.9	13.7	0.18
Rasual Butler	30	28	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	-4	10	14.4	15.2	-0.86	15.0	13.4	1.62
Christian Laettner	34	34	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.14	-4	6	-10	14.4	15.3	-0.85	12.9	14.3	-1.39
Michael Doleac	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.03	-1	3	-4	11.7	15.2	-3.51	11.2	14.0	-2.83
Shandon Anderson	38	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.10	-11	13	-24	13.9	15.6	-1.73	13.9	13.8	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.66,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.78,0.94,0.89,0.9,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 93, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.96,1	93.2%
ORL 67, ATL 78	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.77,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.2%
IND 102, TOR 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.81,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	91.9%