NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	8.0 [284]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +26.0%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	2.8 [235]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -38.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.26	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.26,0.26	0.06	0.21	0.01	12	70%	0.30	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17	0.14	0.04	0.01	17	74%	0.24	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.08	0.03	10	72%	0.17	2	-0.06	9	56%	-0.04
Christian Laettner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	8	56%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	3	60%	0.00	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	8%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Collier	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	14	61%	0.17	0	0.00	5	80%	0.10
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	21	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.03
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	62%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Josh Childress	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	12	43%	-0.06	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Al Harrington	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.18	-0.21	-0.01	11	30%	-0.16	4	-0.22	5	40%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	32.3	16.4	25.5	2.8	40.2	144.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +62.7%

ATL -10.2%

ATL -16.7%

MIA +6.6%

MIA +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.5	15.5	105.3	101.1	104.0
season	15.7	15.6		107.9	98.1
opponent	15.1	15.5		108.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	13.3	13.8	15.2	14.4
ATL	14.0	18.0	19.8	14.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	56	56	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-5	16	13.9	15.2	-1.33	16.8	16.1	0.66
Dwyane Wade	84	78	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	0	6	14.7	12.5	2.18	16.4	17.6	-1.21
Shandon Anderson	58	58	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	-4	14	14.4	14.5	-0.04	17.0	15.7	1.33
Udonis Haslem	67	64	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	2	2	15.4	12.0	3.38	15.5	19.0	-3.53
Christian Laettner	34	34	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	-2	10	12.1	15.7	-3.60	18.5	15.4	3.10
Shaquille O'Neal	72	74	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	7	-8	14.4	14.6	-0.25	17.1	14.3	2.82
Keyon Dooling	6	5	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	4	-2	15.3	14.4	0.95	14.6	16.7	-2.06
Michael Doleac	15	12	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	5	-4	15.6	14.2	1.37	13.3	17.0	-3.69
Rasual Butler	30	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.04	-3	9	-12	15.3	14.0	1.25	15.8	16.9	-1.10
Eddie Jones	48	49	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.04	-8	14	-22	14.0	14.9	-0.83	16.6	16.5	0.15

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Childress	41	40	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.03	8	-14	22	17.5	15.7	1.79	14.4	14.4	0.01
Josh Smith	33	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-7	8	16.2	16.8	-0.61	13.5	15.0	-1.53
Jelani McCoy	31	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-1	-4	15.3	17.2	-1.84	14.2	14.6	-0.44
Jon Barry	33	36	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	1	-8	16.3	16.7	-0.33	14.1	14.7	-0.54
Kenny Anderson	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	-1	-4	16.6	16.5	0.14	14.8	14.0	0.76
Jason Collier	61	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-5	4	17.2	15.3	1.84	14.6	14.2	0.44
Al Harrington	75	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.15	-10	4	-14	16.5	16.9	-0.42	15.2	11.2	4.06
Antoine Walker	76	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-3	0	16.8	15.4	1.41	14.1	15.8	-1.71
Tony Delk	55	57	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.41	-8	2	-10	15.9	17.5	-1.67	14.4	14.6	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 103, DET 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.02,0	94.8%
NJN 77, CLE 72	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.28,0.31,0.1,0.09,0.1,0	92.8%
LAC 94, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.39,0.15,0.16,0.05,0	92.7%