NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	79		Excitement	6.8 [481]		MVP	Darius Songaila (SAC): +11.1%
Sacramento Kings	88		Comeback	5.8 [353]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -24.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	14	54%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	11	46%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Marcus Fizer	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	1	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	10	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2	-0.11	-0.07	0.02	13	34%	-0.14	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Redd	-0.25	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.15	-0.10	-0.00	22	33%	-0.14	2	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	6	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.03	9	64%	0.06	2	-0.06	7	86%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.12,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.06	0.04	18	54%	0.11	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	12	39%	-0.05	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03	22	36%	-0.10	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	2.4	28.5	16.3	21.5	2.4	38.5	129.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +33.1%

SAC +7.0%

SAC +3.0%

SAC +6.6%

SAC +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.9	13.4	15.5	79.8	90.7	104.0
season	16.0	14.7		104.4	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.0		106.4	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.2	13.9	18.2	16.6	15.9
SAC	10.9	17.4	13.9	12.0	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	50	51	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.07	7	-16	23	15.9	15.9	0.00	13.2	13.7	-0.44
Erick Strickland	18	18	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.03	3	-12	15	14.2	16.3	-2.10	17.2	12.6	4.60
Mo Williams	56	55	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.17	-6	-3	-3	15.3	16.7	-1.38	11.5	16.0	-4.50
Keith Van Horn	54	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-5	1	17.5	14.1	3.35	13.8	13.0	0.82
Zaza Pachulia	30	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.04	-10	1	-11	17.8	15.1	2.72	14.8	12.9	1.91
Marcus Fizer	26	26	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-8	7	15.0	16.3	-1.22	15.9	12.5	3.36
Mike James	49	47	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-4	-1	15.3	16.5	-1.21	14.7	12.3	2.40
Desmond Mason	62	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	-2	-5	15.5	16.6	-1.09	13.8	12.8	1.03
Joe Smith	69	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	1	-11	15.6	16.8	-1.28	12.1	16.3	-4.17
Michael Redd	81	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	3	-15	16.3	14.2	2.10	12.6	17.2	-4.60

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	80	81	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.26	10	-1	11	13.0	15.4	-2.34	15.7	17.0	-1.30
Doug Christie	85	87	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-2	13	13.0	16.3	-3.32	16.3	13.2	3.06
Peja Stojakovic	85	87	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	4	1	12.7	18.6	-5.89	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Mike Bibby	79	81	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	2	5	12.7	16.6	-3.85	15.1	19.6	-4.49
Darius Songaila	26	26	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	4	1	16.5	12.3	4.26	18.3	15.1	3.21
Chris Webber	80	84	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	9	-9	12.4	18.4	-5.98	15.5	18.5	-2.98
Bobby Jackson	30	30	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	9	-9	16.5	12.1	4.41	17.1	15.4	1.62
Matt Barnes	12	12	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	5	-1	18.6	12.7	5.89	16.6	15.9	0.73
Greg Ostertag	8	7	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	6	-3	17.9	13.0	4.85	15.3	16.0	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.84,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 117, GSW 122	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.99,1	92.7%
ATL 100, NOP 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.89,0.97,0.98,1	92.2%
POR 60, NJN 64	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.33,0.53,0.89,0.91,0.98,1	91.8%