NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	113		Excitement	5.9 [666]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +31.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	118		Comeback	63.9 [32]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -27.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.04	0.02	8	95%	0.17	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.04
Brian Cardinal	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	0.00	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	72%	0.10	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	58%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	7	67%	0.07	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	12	43%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Pau Gasol	-0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.22,-0.28	0.01	-0.28	0.01	17	58%	-0.10	2	-0.17	9	78%	-0.04

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.26,0.29,0.32	0.32	0.12	0.20	0.01	16	76%	0.38	3	-0.07	13	92%	0.04
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.00	8	77%	0.18	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	-0.03	0.01	12	82%	0.18	3	-0.09	10	90%	0.04
Reggie Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	10	64%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	35%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	3	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.0	35.1	15.7	30.0	1.8	35.1	145.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +12.3%

SEA +18.2%

SEA +4.7%

SEA +18.2%

MEM -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SEA	NBA	MEM	SEA	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.5	122.8	128.3	104.0
season	16.4	16.5		103.7	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.0	14.8	16.2	18.3	16.2
SEA	14.7	14.6	17.3	13.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Cardinal	25	25	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.08	4	-9	13	16.4	16.2	0.26	15.5	14.9	0.58
Earl Watson	37	39	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.12	0	-5	5	16.9	15.8	1.07	14.4	15.5	-1.07
Dahntay Jones	20	22	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.09	-1	-4	3	17.4	15.9	1.47	13.5	15.5	-1.98
Shane Battier	55	54	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.08	-1	-4	3	16.5	15.9	0.60	15.6	14.3	1.30
Lorenzen Wright	44	44	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.12	-3	-2	-1	17.2	15.4	1.74	16.7	13.6	3.12
Bonzi Wells	68	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.56	6	-11	17	15.7	17.8	-2.09	15.7	13.0	2.74
Stromile Swift	42	42	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.46	-1	-4	3	15.5	16.9	-1.34	14.7	15.3	-0.63
Jason Williams	55	53	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.47	-5	0	-5	15.8	16.9	-1.07	15.5	14.4	1.07
Pau Gasol	67	67	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.44	-9	4	-13	16.2	16.4	-0.26	14.9	15.5	-0.58
Mike Miller	47	45	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.33	-15	10	-25	16.1	16.4	-0.38	12.8	17.2	-4.37

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	67	68	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.38	14	-9	23	15.2	14.6	0.62	16.3	16.0	0.34
Rashard Lewis	87	86	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-5	15	15.2	12.0	3.23	16.1	19.0	-2.94
Antonio Daniels	63	63	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.34	8	-3	11	14.1	17.1	-3.04	16.4	16.0	0.42
Ray Allen	80	81	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	6	-7	14.7	17.6	-2.91	15.8	19.8	-4.05
Jerome James	31	30	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	2	1	17.0	14.0	2.98	15.4	16.7	-1.31
Nick Collison	26	27	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	-5	15	15.0	15.1	-0.08	18.7	15.2	3.53
Damien Wilkins	8	6	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	10	-15	18.0	14.8	3.23	14.7	16.4	-1.69
Vladimir Radmanovic	34	34	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.03	-6	11	-17	14.7	15.3	-0.55	18.1	15.2	2.92
Reggie Evans	64	65	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	-0.07	-8	13	-21	14.9	15.3	-0.38	15.4	18.2	-2.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 84, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.22,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.91,1	91.0%
IND 101, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.64,0.43,0.95,1	90.8%
DET 94, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.39,0.28,0.57,0.73,1	90.5%