NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	100		Excitement	4.4 [964]		MVP	Primoz Brezec (CHA): +9.0%
Charlotte Bobcats	111		Comeback	1.4 [970]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -14.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	12	57%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Grant Hill	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0.02	4	60%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	10	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Cuttino Mobley	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.01	0.07	14	68%	0.02	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Tony Battie	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Steve Francis	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	-0.06	12	35%	-0.01	6	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Primoz Brezec	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	14	65%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	70%	0.09	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Bernard Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	39%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	-0.08	14	37%	-0.02	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	6	17%	-0.05	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	14	46%	-0.07	2	-0.03	11	55%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	29.7	15.7	34.5	1.6	43.4	155.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +44.8%

ORL -14.0%

CHA +3.8%

CHA +15.6%

ORL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHA	NBA	ORL	CHA	NBA
this game	12.0	15.6	15.5	96.2	105.7	104.0
season	14.3	15.5		102.9	99.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		105.4	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.3	12.7	13.1	10.0	12.0
CHA	14.3	18.6	15.2	14.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	26	26	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.23	12	-23	35	12.2	11.9	0.33	15.8	15.5	0.28
Jameer Nelson	35	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-18	25	11.3	12.3	-1.05	13.8	16.5	-2.67
Tony Battie	24	25	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-14	17	12.7	11.8	0.89	14.0	16.1	-2.10
DeShawn Stevenson	31	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-16	21	11.4	12.2	-0.89	14.4	16.1	-1.67
Hedo Turkoglu	65	65	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.28	7	-18	25	11.1	13.5	-2.41	14.3	17.5	-3.21
Pat Garrity	65	62	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-8	5	11.7	12.4	-0.65	13.2	18.9	-5.67
Dwight Howard	49	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-3	-5	11.6	12.3	-0.74	16.4	14.7	1.61
Cuttino Mobley	61	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	4	-19	11.7	12.3	-0.63	16.9	13.5	3.40
Kelvin Cato	38	37	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.17	-22	11	-33	12.9	11.5	1.40	18.1	14.2	3.89
Steve Francis	69	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.04	-18	7	-25	12.3	11.3	1.05	16.5	13.8	2.67
Grant Hill	57	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	0.10	-23	12	-35	13.2	10.4	2.80	16.8	14.0	2.83

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Primoz Brezec	76	77	0.69	-0.19	0.87	-0.13	28	-17	45	15.1	16.7	-1.61	12.1	11.7	0.32
Gerald Wallace	65	66	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.02	17	-6	23	17.6	12.2	5.39	12.3	11.5	0.76
Jason Hart	70	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.17	10	1	9	14.4	17.8	-3.40	12.6	10.7	1.84
Brevin Knight	59	57	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.11	17	-6	23	17.5	13.1	4.33	12.1	11.8	0.28
Steven Smith	50	46	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	3	5	15.2	15.9	-0.69	10.9	12.8	-1.88
Emeka Okafor	80	79	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	12	-13	15.7	15.2	0.53	11.9	12.3	-0.45
Bernard Robinson	28	25	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	8	-5	13.2	16.4	-3.25	10.0	12.6	-2.55
Jason Kapono	38	38	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.30	-9	20	-29	14.9	15.9	-1.00	11.5	12.2	-0.72
Jahidi White	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	10	-9	13.5	15.6	-2.10	10.5	12.0	-1.51
Melvin Ely	29	29	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.21	-7	18	-25	14.9	15.8	-0.97	13.3	11.5	1.84
Eddie House	28	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.19	-12	23	-35	15.2	15.7	-0.43	12.4	11.8	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
IND 67, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
BOS 94, SAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%