NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	89		Excitement	7.4 [332]		MVP	Marcus Camby (DEN): +14.3%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	1.6 [886]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -31.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Peeler	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	5	67%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Brad Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	9	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Buford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Darius Songaila	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.02	0.01	12	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Vlade Divac	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	17	50%	-0.08	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Chris Webber	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.09	-0.23	-0.01	25	36%	-0.22	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.00	0.13	-0.01	11	55%	0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.02	7	71%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	11	55%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	9	44%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	17	52%	0.05	4	-0.17	6	83%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.19,-0.24,-0.29,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	-0.00	25	31%	-0.16	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.7	1.7	32.2	15.0	21.6	1.8	34.8	127.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.7%

SAC -15.4%

DEN +24.7%

DEN +0.2%

DEN +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.7	15.7	89.9	99.0	100.5
season	14.7	14.9		106.9	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.6		101.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.5	13.6	16.5	13.9	14.6
DEN	15.5	12.6	13.5	17.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Songaila	24	25	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-13	18	14.2	14.7	-0.44	16.3	14.1	2.18
Rodney Buford	17	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-3	-2	13.9	14.7	-0.78	14.1	14.8	-0.71
Anthony Peeler	53	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-12	16	14.5	14.7	-0.16	15.1	14.1	1.00
Vlade Divac	32	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.01	-6	-2	-4	15.5	14.1	1.40	14.5	14.7	-0.17
Brad Miller	66	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-8	8	14.3	15.1	-0.71	14.8	14.3	0.58
Mike Bibby	56	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	2	-12	14.3	15.0	-0.65	14.1	15.3	-1.24
Peja Stojakovic	84	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-5	2	14.5	14.9	-0.41	15.0	12.4	2.68
Doug Christie	88	87	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	4	-16	14.8	12.6	2.19	14.4	17.0	-2.64
Chris Webber	75	73	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.29	-13	5	-18	14.7	14.2	0.44	14.1	16.3	-2.18

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	83	85	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-3	14	15.0	12.9	2.03	14.6	14.7	-0.15
Nene	76	78	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	-1	10	15.2	12.8	2.42	14.9	13.4	1.53
Andre Miller	77	79	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.21	7	1	6	15.2	12.8	2.35	14.4	15.2	-0.83
Earl Boykins	57	57	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.34	0	8	-8	14.1	15.5	-1.44	14.2	15.0	-0.80
Carmelo Anthony	79	78	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	6	-4	15.2	12.4	2.77	14.2	16.2	-2.04
Rodney White	28	30	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	-4	16	11.4	15.9	-4.51	14.4	14.7	-0.27
Voshon Lenard	43	42	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	5	-2	14.6	14.7	-0.17	15.5	13.9	1.51
Jon Barry	15	16	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	4	0	16.7	14.3	2.38	16.4	14.2	2.13
Chris Andersen	10	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	11	-14	11.6	15.0	-3.40	10.6	15.0	-4.43
Michael Doleac	22	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	13	-18	13.8	14.9	-1.14	15.5	14.3	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.85,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 80, MEM 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.74,0.87,0.74,0.66,0.71,0.53,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.97,0.87,1	92.3%
NOH 92, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.2%
WAS 86, SAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.84,1	92.2%