NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	7.3 [361]		MVP	Chucky Atkins (BOS): +5.2%
Boston Celtics	77		Comeback	1.5 [375]		LVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): -18.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0.02	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	19	58%	0.15	5	-0.12	10	70%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	10	60%	0.03	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.02
Caron Butler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	6	29%	-0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	11	46%	0.07	5	-0.20	2	50%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.06	0.03	13	35%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	71%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	21	58%	0.24	4	-0.21	1	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	5	27%	-0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	44%	-0.02	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	5	29%	-0.05	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Jiri Welsch	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-0.02	10	42%	-0.10	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.7	28.5	15.0	25.2	2.6	34.2	131.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +1.7%

MIA +8.6%

MIA +35.8%

MIA +6.4%

BOS -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.1	15.7	90.3	83.7	100.5
season	16.2	14.4		99.3	99.5
opponent	15.9	15.9		102.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	17.0	16.6	16.1	16.0
BOS	15.7	14.3	15.4	15.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	77	76	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.40	10	-3	13	16.1	15.4	0.68	15.2	14.9	0.23
Rafer Alston	66	65	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-5	17	15.2	18.0	-2.87	15.2	14.9	0.29
Dwyane Wade	60	59	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	7	-7	16.3	15.4	0.89	15.4	14.7	0.68
Eddie Jones	76	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	3	1	16.0	16.1	-0.07	14.6	17.3	-2.65
Caron Butler	63	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	3	1	16.7	14.5	2.21	15.0	15.3	-0.27
Samaki Walker	25	24	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	6	-5	15.6	16.1	-0.55	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	51	50	0.07	0.42	-0.35	-0.07	5	2	3	16.0	16.0	-0.04	15.4	14.9	0.50
Rasual Butler	14	13	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	6	-5	15.4	16.1	-0.67	16.8	14.8	2.00
Brian Grant	33	34	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.05	-2	9	-11	16.1	16.0	0.09	14.7	15.4	-0.67

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	33	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-7	7	14.7	15.4	-0.63	17.0	15.5	1.50
Mark Blount	57	57	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-5	3	15.1	15.1	0.03	16.0	15.9	0.09
Jumaine Jones	27	28	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	0	-7	14.9	15.2	-0.29	14.4	16.7	-2.25
Walter McCarty	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-5	3	15.6	14.8	0.82	16.2	15.9	0.27
Brandon Hunter	45	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-4	1	14.3	15.9	-1.56	16.2	15.8	0.43
Jiri Welsch	70	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-7	7	15.1	15.2	-0.07	16.6	14.2	2.38
Chris Mihm	45	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	0	-7	15.5	14.8	0.75	15.6	16.4	-0.77
Marcus Banks	59	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	0	-7	15.4	14.7	0.63	15.5	17.0	-1.50
Ricky Davis	87	87	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	0	-7	15.2	13.8	1.41	16.0	15.3	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.3,0.17,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.26,0.4,0.42,0.29,0.13,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, DET 76	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.25,0.11,0.05,0,0	92.6%
CHI 100, DET 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.17,0.29,0.13,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	92.2%
LAL 101, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.13,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.16,0.04,0,0	92.1%