NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	7.2 [375]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +28.1%
Washington Wizards	112		Comeback	3.3 [651]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -24.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Banks	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.18	0.09	0.04	13	92%	0.29	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.01	13	61%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Mihm	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jiri Welsch	-0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.02	9	57%	-0.03	4	-0.13	5	80%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.19,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.11	-0.03	18	40%	-0.05	5	-0.20	6	50%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.12	0.02	15	86%	0.43	4	-0.14	7	86%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	6	83%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	69%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	21	58%	0.13	5	-0.17	11	82%	-0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.0	27.1	18.5	24.2	1.6	29.5	125.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +21.1%

WAS +11.1%

WAS +22.1%

BOS -7.5%

WAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	WAS	NBA	BOS	WAS	NBA
this game	14.3	15.4	15.7	104.1	116.7	100.5
season	14.4	15.2		99.5	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.9		102.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	13.9	14.1	14.7	14.3
WAS	17.5	14.9	15.3	14.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mihm	33	32	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-13	16	13.5	14.7	-1.16	14.5	15.8	-1.33
Jiri Welsch	47	50	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-12	14	14.4	14.2	0.25	15.2	15.6	-0.39
Mark Blount	60	59	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-6	2	14.3	14.3	0.09	16.1	14.2	1.86
Jumaine Jones	14	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-7	4	11.9	14.7	-2.79	15.0	15.4	-0.45
Chucky Atkins	43	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-5	0	14.5	14.2	0.27	16.0	14.9	1.07
Walter McCarty	41	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	-2	-6	15.3	13.6	1.68	14.9	15.8	-0.93
Marcus Banks	55	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-5	0	14.2	14.5	-0.27	14.9	16.0	-1.07
Ricky Davis	59	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	2	-14	14.5	14.0	0.53	15.0	15.9	-0.82
Paul Pierce	90	87	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.1	16.6	-2.51	15.7	12.2	3.49

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Hughes	81	83	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.19	18	-8	26	15.6	14.4	1.17	14.1	15.7	-1.67
Gilbert Arenas	83	86	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-3	16	15.4	15.2	0.18	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Kwame Brown	69	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.14	12	-2	14	15.8	14.3	1.52	15.1	12.6	2.51
Jared Jeffries	54	54	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.04	17	-7	24	15.6	15.1	0.52	14.3	14.3	-0.04
Mitchell Butler	33	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	8	-6	14.5	15.8	-1.33	12.9	15.0	-2.11
Jarvis Hayes	51	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	6	-2	14.7	16.2	-1.49	14.5	14.1	0.47
Brendan Haywood	44	45	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	3	4	16.0	14.9	1.05	14.7	14.0	0.65
Etan Thomas	40	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	14	-18	14.3	16.2	-1.90	14.0	14.6	-0.63
Lonny Baxter	6	7	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.03	-8	18	-26	17.7	15.2	2.43	14.7	14.3	0.43
Steve Blake	19	19	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.06	-11	21	-32	16.0	15.2	0.77	14.5	14.3	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 88, MIA 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.44,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.93,1,1	94.2%
IND 86, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.95,0.99,1	93.8%
GSW 103, PHX 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.37,0.34,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.75,0.61,0.62,0.89,0.89,0.99,1	93.2%