NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	7.6 [297]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAS): +11.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	86		Comeback	1.7 [723]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -49.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.31,0.31,0.21,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	13	70%	0.19	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.02
Devin Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.04	11	18%	-0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	16	32%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.50	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.27,-0.27,-0.5	-0.07	-0.41	0.02	23	50%	-0.25	4	-0.24	6	33%	-0.19

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	5	67%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	3	80%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	22	45%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	20	55%	0.04	3	-0.09	9	78%	0.04
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	11	42%	-0.13	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	28.0	15.4	25.3	1.6	37.3	132.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -0.2%

MIN +33.2%

SAS -9.5%

MIN +23.8%

MIN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.4	15.5	15.7	89.0	95.6	100.5
season	15.9	15.6		100.1	103.2
opponent	16.1	15.8		98.4	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	15.9	19.4	15.9	16.4
MIN	12.3	18.4	15.9	16.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	19	18	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.00	3	-8	11	11.9	17.5	-5.63	14.7	15.7	-1.00
Devin Brown	14	14	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-2	-1	12.6	17.0	-4.38	14.1	15.7	-1.57
Hedo Turkoglu	67	66	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.40	10	-15	25	16.1	17.1	-1.05	16.4	12.9	3.48
Bruce Bowen	74	73	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-6	7	17.6	10.9	6.65	16.3	12.0	4.27
Rasho Nesterovic	42	42	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	6	-17	17.0	15.8	1.16	13.8	16.9	-3.06
Tim Duncan	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.34	0	-5	5	16.4	16.3	0.09	16.2	13.0	3.22
Malik Rose	50	50	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-3	1	17.7	14.8	2.90	16.4	14.3	2.01
Tony Parker	75	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	3	-11	16.6	15.3	1.26	15.2	16.7	-1.56
Manu Ginobili	44	44	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.26	-15	10	-25	15.3	17.3	-2.04	13.3	17.5	-4.20

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	55	55	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.37	15	-10	25	14.9	16.4	-1.48	16.9	15.6	1.32
Latrell Sprewell	72	73	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-8	21	14.9	17.7	-2.82	16.4	16.3	0.09
Sam Cassell	72	72	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	-2	9	15.5	15.3	0.17	16.2	17.0	-0.82
Kevin Garnett	73	73	0.49	0.00	0.49	0.26	8	-3	11	15.5	15.2	0.29	16.9	14.3	2.59
Trenton Hassell	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	2	1	15.6	15.1	0.51	16.6	15.4	1.24
Fred Hoiberg	27	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	2	1	15.1	15.6	-0.51	14.9	17.0	-2.03
Mark Madsen	19	20	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	4	-3	16.0	15.3	0.68	17.2	16.1	1.09
Michael Olowokandi	21	22	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	13	-21	16.7	15.1	1.57	15.9	16.5	-0.64
Wally Szczerbiak	39	41	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.11	-17	22	-39	16.3	14.8	1.48	15.3	17.2	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.68,0.37,0.68,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 82, DET 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.61,0.37,0.67,0.85,1	93.8%
CHI 78, ATL 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.55,0.57,0.83,1	92.9%
SAS 82, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.85,0.73,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.58,1	91.3%