NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	92		Excitement	7.5 [317]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +13.1%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	2.4 [762]		LVP	Chris Webber (SAC): -44.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rusty LaRue	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.07,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.01	14	67%	0.09	3	-0.10	11	55%	-0.04
Adonal Foyle	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	11	44%	-0.01	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.05
Mike Dunleavy	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	13	57%	0.04	4	-0.15	4	75%	0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.06	-0.16	0.04	17	47%	-0.17	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.05

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	12	72%	0.24	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	11	74%	0.19	2	-0.11	9	100%	0.04
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	21	47%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	6	64%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	13	26%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.3,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45	-0.45	-0.31	-0.14	-0.01	21	11%	-0.38	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	27.4	15.7	25.6	2.4	34.5	130.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -1.9%

SAC +4.4%

SAC +28.1%

SAC +14.6%

SAC +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	16.5	16.0	15.7	104.5	107.9	100.5
season	16.1	14.7		100.8	106.9
opponent	15.6	15.3		102.0	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.5	17.9	17.6	15.4	16.5
SAC	13.8	17.3	17.5	15.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rusty LaRue	3	4	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-5	6	4.3	16.9	-12.60	1.2	16.7	-15.49
Avery Johnson	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-2	0	22.6	16.1	6.47	17.4	16.0	1.44
Adonal Foyle	20	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	0	-4	20.0	15.5	4.59	18.0	15.4	2.56
Brian Cardinal	18	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-5	6	16.7	16.5	0.21	12.4	17.0	-4.67
Mickael Pietrus	35	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	16.7	16.3	0.40	14.7	16.9	-2.24
Calbert Cheaney	50	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-2	0	17.1	15.8	1.30	17.5	14.0	3.45
Clifford Robinson	72	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-4	4	15.7	20.2	-4.51	15.7	17.7	-2.00
Jason Richardson	77	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-3	2	16.0	20.0	-4.00	16.2	14.8	1.40
Mike Dunleavy	82	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-2	0	16.0	23.2	-7.15	16.0	16.9	-0.91
Erick Dampier	78	77	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	4	-12	16.9	13.2	3.72	17.0	9.9	7.08

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	57	56	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.19	13	-9	22	15.9	16.3	-0.42	16.3	16.8	-0.44
Peja Stojakovic	82	80	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	2	0	15.8	19.1	-3.36	16.2	19.7	-3.57
Doug Christie	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.40	1	3	-2	15.7	18.5	-2.77	16.1	20.0	-3.95
Mike Bibby	73	72	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.37	0	4	-4	15.8	17.3	-1.55	16.1	18.4	-2.29
Vlade Divac	45	46	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.38	-4	8	-12	17.0	15.1	1.84	16.5	16.5	-0.09
Anthony Peeler	30	29	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	1	2	15.6	16.3	-0.72	17.4	16.0	1.41
Darius Songaila	13	12	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.04	6	-2	8	15.8	16.1	-0.23	18.9	16.1	2.80
Rodney Buford	7	8	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	2	0	19.1	15.8	3.36	19.7	16.2	3.57
Chris Webber	59	59	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	7	-10	16.5	15.1	1.48	16.8	15.8	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.53,0.73,0.65,0.82,0.62,0.64,0.89,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 94, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.89,0.9,0.97,1	93.0%
CHA 90, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.79,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.53,0.71,0.91,0.96,1	91.4%
MIL 88, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.86,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.9,1	91.4%