NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Excitement	4.1 [998]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (MIL): +17.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	1.1 [531]		LVP	Desmond Mason (MIL): -22.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	14	64%	0.12	0	0.00	8	75%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	79%	0.07	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	17	67%	0.10	5	-0.10	9	100%	0.02
Trenton Hassell	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Olowokandi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	15	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	6	33%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.02	0.04	11	104%	0.24	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	8	69%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	16	61%	0.05	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	12	50%	-0.08	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	0.03	9	45%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.22	-0.03	-0.02	6	33%	-0.07	7	-0.16	6	67%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.4	26.5	16.3	28.7	2.5	44.4	143.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +35.0%

MIL -5.0%

MIL -0.4%

MIN +23.1%

MIL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.2	15.7	112.5	106.2	100.5
season	15.6	15.3		103.2	103.6
opponent	15.5	16.1		103.3	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.0	18.7	15.0	15.7	15.8
MIL	14.8	15.6	15.0	12.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	83	81	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-8	22	15.3	18.5	-3.23	14.2	14.7	-0.57
Latrell Sprewell	80	79	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-4	14	14.6	21.4	-6.75	13.8	16.5	-2.77
Sam Cassell	63	62	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	1	4	14.4	18.2	-3.80	14.3	14.2	0.02
Trenton Hassell	54	54	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.29	1	5	-4	14.2	17.8	-3.58	14.3	14.2	0.15
Ervin Johnson	21	21	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	-3	12	12.3	16.7	-4.43	15.3	13.9	1.39
Mark Madsen	58	58	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.29	-4	10	-14	17.6	12.9	4.68	14.5	13.9	0.54
Troy Hudson	33	34	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.13	1	5	-4	18.2	14.4	3.80	14.2	14.3	-0.02
Fred Hoiberg	29	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	3	0	17.3	15.1	2.24	13.9	14.4	-0.51
Wally Szczerbiak	33	34	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	6	-6	17.8	14.7	3.15	14.4	14.2	0.16
Michael Olowokandi	26	28	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.28	-9	15	-24	18.2	14.9	3.30	14.7	14.0	0.71

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Santiago	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-6	6	0.0	14.2	-14.25	24.0	15.7	8.34
Dan Gadzuric	28	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.34	11	-17	28	15.7	13.6	2.07	17.6	15.0	2.56
Damon Jones	49	48	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-14	22	13.3	15.2	-1.93	16.7	14.8	1.92
Toni Kukoc	32	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-7	8	14.5	14.1	0.33	18.3	14.5	3.84
Desmond Mason	71	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-9	12	14.5	13.6	0.82	15.0	17.9	-2.88
Brian Skinner	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	5	-16	15.0	13.5	1.47	14.5	17.0	-2.42
Keith Van Horn	61	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-7	8	13.6	15.3	-1.72	17.0	13.4	3.62
T.J. Ford	47	47	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.00	-14	8	-22	15.2	13.3	1.93	14.6	16.9	-2.26
Michael Redd	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	7	-20	13.6	16.1	-2.44	15.1	17.6	-2.50
Joe Smith	73	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.08	-16	10	-26	14.0	15.0	-0.93	15.0	18.1	-3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, CLE 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.02,0	96.3%
DET 87, BOS 72	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.22,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.3%
OKC 109, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%