NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Excitement	6.5 [510]		MVP	Mark Madsen (MIN): +6.9%
Detroit Pistons	87		Comeback	1.3 [434]		LVP	Corliss Williamson (DET): -18.9%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Madsen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	4	64%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Fred Hoiberg	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.01	24	49%	0.07	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Oliver Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	57%	0.05	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.05
Gary Trent	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Latrell Sprewell	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	10	46%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.10

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	13	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Mike James	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tremaine Fowlkes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	14	52%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.07
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	0.03	-0.01	16	55%	0.08	7	-0.17	12	83%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	8	31%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.10	0.01	14	40%	-0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	3.5	30.6	18.3	28.4	3.6	49.2	158.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +38.1%

DET -5.8%

DET -16.1%

MIN +31.1%

MIN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DET	NBA	MIN	DET	NBA
this game	16.6	15.4	15.7	97.8	96.7	100.5
season	15.6	16.2		103.2	99.2
opponent	16.0	16.1		92.6	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.5	17.7	20.4	14.6	16.6
DET	16.1	15.8	15.6	14.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	76	77	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	-2	5	16.1	19.1	-2.93	15.2	16.8	-1.60
Fred Hoiberg	28	28	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	-2	5	15.3	17.2	-1.91	15.6	15.3	0.25
Latrell Sprewell	72	74	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.42	-5	6	-11	16.7	16.2	0.54	15.7	14.2	1.47
Troy Hudson	27	28	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.10	5	-4	9	17.1	16.4	0.78	16.1	15.1	0.97
Sam Cassell	64	62	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.36	-4	5	-9	16.1	17.7	-1.59	15.1	16.1	-0.97
Oliver Miller	14	15	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.17	1	0	1	17.8	16.4	1.40	15.8	15.3	0.48
Mark Madsen	45	46	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	-2	5	16.4	16.8	-0.31	15.1	15.7	-0.60
Gary Trent	14	13	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	3	-5	19.1	16.1	2.93	16.8	15.2	1.60
Ervin Johnson	22	21	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	3	-5	17.7	16.2	1.49	15.6	15.3	0.29
Trenton Hassell	44	46	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.33	-17	18	-35	17.7	15.5	2.21	14.0	16.9	-2.86

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	81	80	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-7	13	15.0	18.8	-3.75	17.1	12.7	4.39
Tremaine Fowlkes	5	6	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.06	-3	2	-5	22.0	15.0	6.99	12.2	16.9	-4.75
Darvin Ham	11	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	0	-1	13.7	15.6	-1.91	17.0	16.5	0.47
Mehmet Okur	44	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-1	1	16.2	14.7	1.49	16.2	16.9	-0.68
Mike James	9	11	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	7	-15	14.4	15.5	-1.06	14.7	16.9	-2.13
Rasheed Wallace	20	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	10	-21	17.0	14.9	2.06	15.4	17.0	-1.64
Ben Wallace	76	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.47	6	-7	13	15.0	17.4	-2.40	16.5	17.3	-0.83
Tayshaun Prince	72	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-3	5	15.4	15.2	0.22	16.0	18.6	-2.64
Richard Hamilton	83	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.51	3	-4	7	15.6	12.9	2.76	16.8	14.5	2.30
Corliss Williamson	49	49	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-2	3	14.7	16.2	-1.51	18.2	14.7	3.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.04,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 109, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0	94.4%
WAS 103, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.7%
DET 89, MIL 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.7%