NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	8.4 [178]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (NYK): +34.5%
New York Knicks	92		Comeback	6.4 [252]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -32.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.21	0.12	0.10	0.01	18	63%	0.21	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
Corliss Williamson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	8	50%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.07	0.01	9	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Bob Sura	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	12	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	6	31%	-0.16	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.27,-0.32	-0.20	-0.13	-0.01	20	21%	-0.30	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.14,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.26	0.00	16	68%	0.44	2	-0.10	9	100%	0.11
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	70%	0.09	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.10	0.12	0.01	17	45%	0.13	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	12	58%	0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Frank Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	13	31%	-0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	26.8	15.8	23.9	0.6	36.5	130.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +54.5%

NYK +22.2%

NYK +8.4%

DET -36.2%

NYK +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NYK	NBA	DET	NYK	NBA
this game	15.0	15.8	15.7	93.6	98.9	100.5
season	16.2	15.5		99.2	98.6
opponent	15.8	16.0		100.8	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.0	14.5	13.1	14.3	15.0
NYK	14.0	14.9	17.6	17.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	34	33	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.09	2	-6	8	13.8	15.6	-1.87	16.9	15.2	1.69
Mehmet Okur	53	53	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-3	2	15.4	14.4	0.92	15.2	16.7	-1.58
Elden Campbell	12	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-1	-2	14.2	15.1	-0.81	15.6	15.9	-0.31
Corliss Williamson	39	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-9	14	14.9	15.0	-0.01	16.2	15.6	0.57
Bob Sura	22	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	1	-6	14.9	15.0	-0.06	16.2	15.7	0.44
Darvin Ham	37	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-5	6	15.3	14.8	0.52	16.7	15.3	1.38
Chauncey Billups	54	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-4	4	15.3	14.5	0.71	15.6	16.2	-0.52
Tayshaun Prince	59	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	3	-10	15.1	14.8	0.25	15.5	16.5	-1.03
Ben Wallace	81	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	14.7	16.4	-1.66	16.3	13.4	2.85
Richard Hamilton	79	78	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.31	-9	5	-14	15.1	14.0	1.14	15.2	19.0	-3.76

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Othella Harrington	56	55	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.23	20	-16	36	14.7	17.6	-2.99	15.7	13.8	1.90
Kurt Thomas	78	79	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.48	6	-2	8	15.5	17.5	-2.01	15.3	13.2	2.09
Stephon Marbury	71	70	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.35	5	-1	6	15.3	17.6	-2.28	15.2	14.4	0.78
Anfernee Hardaway	79	81	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.41	-2	6	-8	16.3	13.1	3.27	15.2	13.3	1.91
Shandon Anderson	62	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	5	-6	15.3	17.0	-1.77	15.2	14.6	0.60
Tim Thomas	20	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.05	7	-3	10	14.4	16.2	-1.78	13.9	15.2	-1.33
Frank Williams	25	27	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	3	-2	17.4	15.3	2.18	14.5	15.1	-0.62
DerMarr Johnson	22	23	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	2	0	17.0	15.5	1.45	14.3	15.2	-0.92
Michael Sweetney	7	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	8	-12	21.0	15.4	5.57	13.9	15.0	-1.19
Dikembe Mutombo	45	47	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	0.01	-14	18	-32	17.1	14.7	2.40	13.6	16.3	-2.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.75,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.47,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.66,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.53,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.43,0.72,1	92.0%
CHI 88, CHH 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.51,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.25,0.36,0.55,0.72,1	90.7%
DET 89, NOH 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.33,0.25,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	90.6%