NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	97		Excitement	9.4 [84]		MVP	Chris Andersen (DEN): +20.1%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	11.4 [58]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIN): -27.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Mark Madsen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	4	73%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.06	0.06	-0.05	26	53%	0.18	5	-0.12	7	71%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.25,-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	17	36%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Hoiberg	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.1,0.1,-0.04,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	10	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Sam Cassell	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.1,-0.18,-0.28	-0.02	-0.26	-0.00	24	43%	-0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.08	0.00	6	94%	0.20	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	0.00	20	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	3	-0.11	5	60%	-0.02
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,-0.09,-0.19	-0.19	-0.01	-0.20	-0.02	20	52%	-0.05	2	-0.14	6	100%	0.07
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.25	-0.25	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	15	44%	-0.13	6	-0.13	2	50%	-0.15

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	2.4	22.4	15.6	24.1	2.3	36.0	123.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -7.6%

MIN +8.6%

MIN +18.7%

MIN +33.7%

DEN -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	14.7	15.7	104.3	105.6	100.5
season	15.6	14.9		103.2	101.6
opponent	15.4	16.1		101.1	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.0	17.3	18.6	15.1	16.7
DEN	13.9	14.7	14.1	16.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	77	74	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.43	15	-13	28	16.4	18.4	-2.00	15.3	12.1	3.16
Sam Cassell	75	73	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.34	14	-12	26	16.4	18.1	-1.72	15.3	12.4	2.92
Fred Hoiberg	51	50	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.53	5	-3	8	15.8	17.8	-1.94	14.8	14.6	0.13
Latrell Sprewell	67	64	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.60	-5	7	-12	16.9	16.2	0.68	13.6	17.5	-3.85
Gary Trent	28	27	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.38	-2	4	-6	16.9	16.6	0.30	14.5	14.8	-0.34
Trenton Hassell	59	56	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	-2	6	17.0	16.2	0.76	14.9	14.5	0.40
Ervin Johnson	41	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.10	3	-1	4	17.4	16.2	1.29	14.8	14.7	0.14
Oliver Miller	6	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	6	-10	18.3	16.6	1.72	11.7	14.9	-3.27
Mark Madsen	33	32	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	-0.08	-7	9	-16	16.7	16.7	-0.08	14.4	14.9	-0.54
Troy Hudson	28	28	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.00	-13	15	-28	17.6	16.4	1.22	15.1	14.5	0.56

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	43	44	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-5	8	15.6	13.9	1.69	16.5	16.9	-0.33
Rodney White	34	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.17	5	-7	12	14.4	14.9	-0.59	15.6	17.4	-1.74
Nene	66	69	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.32	10	-12	22	13.5	18.2	-4.70	17.7	13.9	3.84
Ryan Bowen	9	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	6	-14	17.0	14.5	2.53	17.3	16.6	0.63
Earl Boykins	70	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.45	1	-3	4	15.2	13.0	2.15	16.8	16.3	0.56
Carmelo Anthony	79	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.58	1	-3	4	14.3	17.6	-3.32	16.9	15.5	1.40
Andre Miller	79	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	2	-6	14.5	16.4	-1.87	16.6	17.5	-0.94
Marcus Camby	70	72	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.30	-18	16	-34	15.5	12.0	3.44	16.1	18.8	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.75,0.55,0.86,0.77,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 94, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.86,0.8,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.72,0.78,0.58,0	90.1%
LAL 117, CHA 116	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.82,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.91,0	90.1%
GSW 100, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.8,0.91,0.93,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.42,0	89.8%