NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	77		Excitement	8.1 [224]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +37.3%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	5.1 [320]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -35.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29	0.09	0.19	-0.01	7	86%	0.33	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.03,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.02	13	54%	0.14	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,0.04,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.08	-0.01	9	53%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	15%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	9	25%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.36	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.36,-0.36	-0.11	-0.25	-0.00	13	53%	-0.18	6	-0.18	6	50%	-0.13

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.04,-0.04,0.22,0.37	0.37	-0.03	0.40	0.00	12	56%	0.46	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.05
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.08	0.12	-0.00	10	70%	0.23	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	8	35%	-0.11	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.08
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	14	42%	-0.11	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	30.0	16.0	24.8	1.8	37.2	136.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +16.3%

DET +24.9%

DET +13.8%

SAS -5.9%

DET +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	16.7	15.7	86.5	97.7	100.5
season	15.9	16.2		100.1	99.2
opponent	16.0	15.8		92.6	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.3	15.7	14.3	17.1	16.0
DET	16.2	16.4	17.7	16.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	11	11	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.10	7	-15	22	14.2	16.3	-2.13	19.5	16.3	3.17
Ron Mercer	13	11	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-8	8	13.5	16.5	-2.94	15.3	16.9	-1.62
Malik Rose	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-9	10	19.0	16.0	3.02	14.0	16.8	-2.79
Rasho Nesterovic	46	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.16	-7	-1	-6	16.7	15.3	1.44	17.5	15.8	1.69
Manu Ginobili	50	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-6	4	16.4	15.6	0.76	16.0	17.6	-1.58
Tony Parker	48	44	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-2	-4	16.3	15.7	0.63	16.8	16.6	0.17
Bruce Bowen	59	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-3	-2	16.2	15.7	0.57	16.6	16.8	-0.22
Charlie Ward	41	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	15.7	16.3	-0.63	16.6	16.8	-0.17
Tim Duncan	74	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-8	8	16.0	16.3	-0.35	17.0	14.9	2.08
Hedo Turkoglu	56	57	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.36	-9	1	-10	16.1	15.9	0.22	17.6	14.9	2.73
Robert Horry	45	42	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.44	-17	9	-26	15.8	16.3	-0.59	14.7	18.5	-3.77

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	61	63	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.32	12	-4	16	15.1	20.3	-5.16	15.6	17.2	-1.68
Mehmet Okur	53	57	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.52	5	3	2	17.8	15.0	2.73	16.1	16.0	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	68	69	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.36	9	-1	10	16.3	18.1	-1.74	15.9	16.6	-0.78
Chauncey Billups	59	59	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	0	8	16.3	17.5	-1.25	15.8	16.6	-0.79
Ben Wallace	72	73	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-2	12	16.2	18.8	-2.55	15.8	17.2	-1.47
Darvin Ham	21	22	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	4	0	14.1	17.5	-3.42	14.9	16.4	-1.51
Elden Campbell	24	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.13	3	5	-2	17.0	16.6	0.43	16.0	16.1	-0.06
Bob Sura	23	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	11	-14	20.1	15.5	4.68	16.5	15.9	0.62
Chucky Atkins	34	35	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.23	-2	10	-12	18.6	15.5	3.07	16.9	15.5	1.39
Corliss Williamson	20	20	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.15	-6	14	-20	17.8	16.3	1.51	19.2	15.1	4.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.47,0.47,0.67,0.48,0.45,0.23,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.62,0.63,0.43,0.28,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.61,0.46,0.41,0.58,1	92.1%
CLE 102, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.55,0.73,1	91.4%
IND 87, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.72,1	90.8%