NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	6.2 [558]		MVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): +15.6%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.7 [823]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -8.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.03	12	63%	0.09	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Ronald Dupree	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.04	11	69%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddy Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	70%	0.08	2	-0.10	6	100%	0.06
Eddie Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	13	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	7	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	75%	0.09	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Crawford	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	10	36%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	16	68%	0.19	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.01	15	71%	0.23	4	-0.12	8	100%	0.04
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	16	56%	0.13	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	3	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	5	42%	-0.00	4	-0.08	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.7	26.3	15.7	22.8	2.7	39.6	136.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.3%

CHI -2.8%

CHI -3.2%

MIA +3.2%

MIA +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	16.2	15.7	103.3	112.1	100.5
season	15.2	16.2		94.6	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.8	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.3	14.6	15.9	15.2	15.2
MIA	16.7	16.1	16.1	16.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corie Blount	40	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.33	10	-17	27	15.1	15.4	-0.27	17.2	15.4	1.82
Rick Brunson	6	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-5	3	12.3	15.5	-3.12	19.3	16.0	3.32
Jamal Crawford	50	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-1	-5	16.2	14.1	2.08	15.9	16.6	-0.74
Kendall Gill	46	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	0	-7	15.4	15.1	0.37	15.1	17.3	-2.26
Eddy Curry	38	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-9	11	15.9	14.8	1.19	16.7	15.9	0.79
Jerome Williams	42	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	6	-19	15.2	15.3	-0.15	15.5	16.8	-1.30
Antonio Davis	55	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	3	-13	15.7	14.5	1.23	16.4	15.9	0.49
Eddie Robinson	48	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-6	5	14.7	15.9	-1.18	16.6	15.8	0.73
Ronald Dupree	52	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-8	9	14.0	16.8	-2.79	16.0	16.6	-0.60
Kirk Hinrich	83	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	2	-11	15.3	14.4	0.89	16.3	15.6	0.75

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	63	65	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-7	21	15.5	17.8	-2.30	15.6	14.5	1.09
Eddie Jones	73	76	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.16	13	-6	19	16.0	17.3	-1.37	15.0	16.5	-1.51
Caron Butler	73	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-2	11	16.0	17.1	-1.10	15.6	14.1	1.41
Lamar Odom	68	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	-1	9	15.7	17.8	-2.08	15.1	15.6	-0.45
Brian Grant	56	58	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.11	8	-1	9	16.1	16.5	-0.37	15.5	14.8	0.68
Loren Woods	34	34	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.19	-1	8	-9	16.9	15.8	1.04	14.8	15.5	-0.68
Malik Allen	23	22	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	8	-9	17.8	15.7	2.08	15.6	15.1	0.45
Rasual Butler	25	25	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	11	-15	17.7	15.7	2.00	15.0	15.4	-0.40
John Wallace	11	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	11	-15	16.2	16.2	-0.06	15.7	15.2	0.54
Bimbo Coles	29	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.13	-7	14	-21	17.3	15.7	1.53	14.5	15.6	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.84,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 87, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.98,0.94,0.9,0.99,1	94.6%
SAC 93, DEN 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.84,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1	93.4%
SAS 99, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.96,1	93.4%