NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	99		Excitement	7.3 [345]		MVP	Jiri Welsch (BOS): +31.2%
Boston Celtics	96		Comeback	1.5 [371]		LVP	Carlos Arroyo (UTA): -31.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,0.2	-0.05	0.24	-0.01	8	25%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.11	-0.01	13	60%	0.18	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	0.01	16	69%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	8	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jarron Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Matt Harpring	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	16	58%	0.08	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Ben Handlogten	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Raul Lopez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.31,-0.31	-0.13	-0.19	-0.00	14	37%	-0.24	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.14,0.31	0.31	0.05	0.26	0.00	8	74%	0.36	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	9	55%	0.00	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Mike James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	6	33%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.14	-0.14	0.06	-0.17	0.03	6	78%	-0.09	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	5	54%	-0.08	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.29	-0.29	-0.07	-0.21	0.00	15	51%	-0.20	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.4	30.5	16.3	26.2	2.5	30.6	130.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +49.0%

BOS -14.5%

UTA +0.4%

UTA +13.8%

UTA +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	BOS	NBA	UTA	BOS	NBA
this game	18.1	14.8	15.7	112.5	110.3	100.5
season	17.2	14.4		99.4	99.5
opponent	15.9	15.2		102.1	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.0	16.7	17.5	22.9	18.1
BOS	16.7	15.3	13.1	14.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	69	69	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-7	17	17.8	19.1	-1.31	14.7	15.3	-0.65
Andrei Kirilenko	75	75	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.28	12	-9	21	18.5	15.5	2.98	15.7	9.4	6.26
Carlos Arroyo	64	64	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.33	10	-7	17	18.2	17.7	0.45	14.9	14.6	0.34
Matt Harpring	78	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-5	13	18.3	16.7	1.56	14.6	16.2	-1.56
DeShawn Stevenson	58	58	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	0	3	17.0	20.1	-3.12	14.9	14.6	0.34
Raja Bell	37	36	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.33	-6	9	-15	19.4	17.1	2.24	13.8	15.5	-1.72
Ben Handlogten	16	16	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	11	-19	16.0	18.5	-2.54	13.6	15.1	-1.54
Jarron Collins	19	18	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	10	-17	19.1	17.8	1.31	15.3	14.7	0.65
Raul Lopez	24	23	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	10	-17	17.7	18.2	-0.45	14.6	14.9	-0.34

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Banks	37	38	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.21	11	-14	25	13.7	15.7	-1.98	18.9	17.5	1.43
Ricky Davis	45	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-3	3	14.7	15.0	-0.26	17.0	19.4	-2.41
Walter McCarty	49	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.42	8	-11	19	13.7	16.2	-2.52	18.3	17.7	0.60
Chris Mihm	41	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	1	-5	14.6	15.0	-0.44	18.0	18.2	-0.24
Vin Baker	38	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	8	-19	16.2	13.7	2.52	17.7	18.3	-0.60
Mark Blount	46	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-4	5	15.0	14.6	0.44	18.2	18.0	0.24
Paul Pierce	79	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.44	1	-4	5	14.7	16.4	-1.72	18.6	13.4	5.16
Jiri Welsch	55	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	5	-13	15.3	13.9	1.39	18.4	17.6	0.80
Mike James	45	46	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.23	-13	10	-23	15.5	14.0	1.49	17.3	19.0	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.31,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 96, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	91.6%
SAS 100, BKN 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.09,0	91.1%
MIN 97, SAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.34,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.08,0	90.9%