NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	93		Excitement	3.3 [1137]		MVP	Drew Gooden (ORL): +9.4%
Orlando Magic	119		Comeback	1.0 [1254]		LVP	Jason Richardson (GSW): -10.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	83%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	13	73%	0.07	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.06	12	42%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	67%	0.00	2	-0.02	5	80%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	4	85%	0.03	4	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	11	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	13	38%	-0.07	2	-0.04	8	25%	-0.06

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	19	60%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.04	13	65%	0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	12	60%	0.06	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.05	23	58%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.7	25.1	16.6	26.4	2.5	27.2	123.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +22.6%

ORL +4.7%

ORL +19.2%

ORL +4.8%

GSW -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.9	15.7	96.9	122.7	100.5
season	16.1	15.7		100.8	100.9
opponent	15.4	15.3		108.2	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	16.8	14.7	13.7	14.9
ORL	16.3	12.0	16.6	15.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	10	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.14	4	-30	34	10.6	15.4	-4.80	16.9	14.7	2.14
Troy Murphy	28	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-27	28	15.6	14.6	1.00	16.9	14.0	2.87
Brian Cardinal	26	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.13	-8	-18	10	14.7	15.0	-0.28	17.9	13.8	4.07
Calbert Cheaney	47	48	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-18	10	16.0	13.8	2.20	15.9	14.0	1.88
Speedy Claxton	50	51	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.40	-22	-4	-18	15.9	13.8	2.01	13.4	16.7	-3.36
Jason Richardson	70	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.21	-17	-9	-8	14.2	16.9	-2.73	14.2	17.2	-3.00
Mike Dunleavy	56	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.34	-22	-4	-18	14.8	15.0	-0.26	15.9	13.7	2.18
Erick Dampier	65	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-10	-6	14.6	15.6	-1.06	13.9	17.0	-3.06
Clifford Robinson	70	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.34	-27	1	-28	14.7	15.3	-0.56	14.1	17.1	-2.98
Nick Van Exel	58	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	-11	-4	15.2	14.4	0.79	15.1	14.8	0.30

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	75	74	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.52	37	-11	48	14.9	15.3	-0.42	15.0	14.6	0.40
Rod Strickland	69	69	0.56	-0.06	0.61	-0.38	32	-6	38	14.2	16.9	-2.68	15.0	14.5	0.52
Juwan Howard	69	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.50	34	-8	42	13.8	17.8	-3.99	15.0	14.6	0.42
Gordan Giricek	73	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.28	21	5	16	14.2	17.1	-2.89	14.9	14.9	0.03
Drew Gooden	68	67	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.23	19	7	12	15.1	14.6	0.52	15.5	13.6	1.93
Andrew DeClercq	33	34	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	21	-16	15.0	14.9	0.08	13.7	15.5	-1.80
Keith Bogans	46	45	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.28	-6	32	-38	16.2	13.8	2.45	14.7	15.0	-0.31
Zaza Pachulia	24	22	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.18	-6	32	-38	17.7	14.0	3.72	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Steven Hunter	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	31	-36	15.6	14.9	0.67	11.4	15.2	-3.84
Shammond Williams	28	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.12	-6	32	-38	16.9	14.2	2.68	14.5	15.0	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 83, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
CHA 106, TOR 127	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
UTA 69, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%