NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	106		Excitement	6.1 [585]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +23.1%
Atlanta Hawks	94		Comeback	1.3 [449]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (ATL): -22.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.13	0.10	-0.00	19	66%	0.25	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	6	100%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Erick Strickland	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.06	-0.02	9	79%	0.20	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	15	51%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Damon Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.04	6	79%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Daniel Santiago	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	13	27%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	15	68%	0.11	4	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Hansen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	19	55%	0.13	6	-0.17	4	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	6	53%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	9	35%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dion Glover	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	7	20%	-0.11	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	18	28%	-0.15	2	-0.07	3	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	497.2	2.5	29.6	15.5	24.3	2.6	30.5	602.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +56.1%

ATL -1.5%

ATL -40.3%

MIL +33.3%

MIL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.2	15.7	110.4	98.9	100.5
season	15.3	15.3		103.6	98.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.0	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	14.2	16.7	15.4	15.0
ATL	14.2	14.6	16.8	15.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	80	78	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	0	12	15.4	13.1	2.31	14.7	17.4	-2.66
Desmond Mason	82	81	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	1	10	14.8	16.0	-1.18	14.6	18.3	-3.66
Damon Jones	54	53	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	2	8	14.2	16.0	-1.88	15.8	14.4	1.45
Michael Redd	71	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.02	10	2	8	15.7	13.0	2.74	14.9	16.0	-1.18
Marcus Haislip	47	47	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	0	12	14.6	15.4	-0.85	15.8	14.6	1.22
Erick Strickland	45	44	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	13	-14	14.9	15.1	-0.19	16.2	14.3	1.89
Dan Gadzuric	37	38	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.10	4	8	-4	15.0	15.0	-0.03	16.8	14.1	2.75
T.J. Ford	41	41	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	9	-6	15.3	14.7	0.61	14.1	16.0	-1.93
Daniel Santiago	23	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	13	-14	14.5	15.2	-0.67	14.2	15.5	-1.31

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Crawford	19	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-10	8	14.3	15.4	-1.07	14.6	15.1	-0.54
Travis Hansen	9	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-7	2	16.6	15.0	1.53	11.0	15.4	-4.40
Nazr Mohammed	26	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-8	4	18.7	13.8	4.90	13.7	15.4	-1.72
Dion Glover	47	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-4	-4	13.1	17.2	-4.12	15.0	15.0	0.06
Boris Diaw	59	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-9	6	15.3	14.9	0.41	14.9	15.1	-0.15
Jacque Vaughn	37	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-9	6	16.8	14.1	2.73	14.8	15.1	-0.38
Stephen Jackson	63	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-6	0	14.6	16.3	-1.77	15.5	14.1	1.44
Theo Ratliff	66	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-5	-2	14.1	17.7	-3.58	15.5	13.9	1.57
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-4	-4	15.5	14.2	1.32	15.1	14.7	0.39
Jason Terry	81	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.09	-14	2	-16	15.4	13.6	1.87	15.2	13.9	1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.27,0.34,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.15,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.23,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	94.3%
PHI 95, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%
CHA 105, CHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0	94.1%