NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	95		Excitement	6.2 [567]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +11.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	100		Comeback	1.1 [1131]		LVP	T.J. Ford (MIL): -24.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raul Lopez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	8	81%	0.20	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Curtis Borchardt	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.02	16	58%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.06	-0.06	0.05	15	66%	0.05	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	15	35%	-0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	5	56%	-0.04	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04
Greg Ostertag	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.02	6	25%	-0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Raja Bell	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.05	0.05	9	41%	-0.10	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.01	17	60%	0.14	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	11	71%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	8	65%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	87%	0.10	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	4	57%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	6	53%	0.00	1	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.19	-0.06	-0.01	9	11%	-0.12	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.5	29.4	15.4	27.8	0.6	37.3	135.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +34.3%

MIL +12.5%

UTA -33.3%

MIL +33.0%

MIL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.3	13.0	15.7	96.0	103.1	100.5
season	17.2	15.3		99.4	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.3	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.2	15.8	16.4	15.9	16.3
MIL	13.3	12.5	13.6	12.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Ostertag	50	49	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-7	9	16.5	16.1	0.38	13.4	12.6	0.78
Sasha Pavlovic	1	2	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-3	1	3.0	16.5	-13.47	11.0	13.1	-2.06
Matt Harpring	74	73	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.20	5	-10	15	15.7	18.1	-2.34	12.8	13.8	-1.08
Raul Lopez	33	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-4	3	18.4	15.3	3.09	13.1	13.0	0.11
DeShawn Stevenson	55	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-6	7	16.1	16.6	-0.55	13.0	13.0	0.04
Raja Bell	44	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	1	-7	16.6	16.1	0.55	13.0	13.0	-0.04
Jarron Collins	44	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.07	-12	7	-19	18.0	15.0	3.00	13.5	12.6	0.84
Carlos Arroyo	66	66	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	15.3	18.4	-3.09	13.0	13.1	-0.11
Andrei Kirilenko	79	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-4	3	16.1	17.1	-1.02	13.1	12.9	0.21
Curtis Borchardt	49	48	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	2	-9	16.1	16.5	-0.38	12.6	13.4	-0.78

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	49	52	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	-3	11	13.5	12.5	0.95	16.9	15.7	1.28
Joe Smith	68	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.34	2	3	-1	12.9	13.4	-0.56	15.8	17.8	-2.03
Michael Redd	85	87	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	5	-5	13.1	12.7	0.40	16.1	17.7	-1.52
Tim Thomas	64	67	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	-1	7	12.8	13.5	-0.70	16.3	16.5	-0.25
Damon Jones	47	49	0.35	0.14	0.21	0.33	1	4	-3	12.5	13.5	-1.07	16.6	16.0	0.59
Desmond Mason	45	44	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	1	3	13.3	12.8	0.46	16.8	15.9	0.87
Toni Kukoc	36	34	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	4	-3	11.8	13.7	-1.89	15.8	16.6	-0.82
T.J. Ford	50	50	0.14	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	1	3	13.5	12.5	1.07	16.0	16.6	-0.59
Daniel Santiago	41	41	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	6	-7	13.8	12.5	1.32	17.0	15.9	1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 76, DEN 86	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.6%
MIN 86, HOU 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.93,0.97,1,0.98,1,1,1	94.3%
DAL 92, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.78,0.71,0.58,0.74,0.84,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%