NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	60		Excitement	2.0 [1254]		MVP	Larry Hughes (WAS): +3.2%
Washington Wizards	86		Comeback	1.2 [1080]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -6.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Jefferies	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	56%	0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	8	56%	0.07	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.06	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	6	50%	-0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	7	61%	-0.03	1	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	7	29%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	-0.06	21	40%	-0.05	3	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	12	57%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	75%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	11	40%	0.02	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	68%	0.01	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.11	4	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	52%	0.02	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	4	38%	-0.02	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	13	46%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kwame Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	7	28%	-0.06	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.1	1.8	29.2	15.3	24.6	2.3	27.6	120.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +17.4%

WAS +6.5%

WAS +17.5%

WAS +6.2%

WAS +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	16.4	16.3	15.7	68.2	97.7	100.5
season	16.8	15.2		94.8	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.7		102.4	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.4	17.1	16.0	14.1	16.4
WAS	15.9	14.2	17.6	17.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Jefferies	13	14	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-34	42	11.2	17.3	-6.05	17.1	16.2	0.87
Michael Curry	26	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-25	24	19.0	15.3	3.66	17.9	15.7	2.23
Jerome Moiso	21	19	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-24	22	15.0	16.8	-1.82	15.3	16.6	-1.31
Alvin Williams	36	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	-18	10	18.9	14.7	4.19	17.7	15.2	2.47
Chris Bosh	49	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-18	10	15.0	18.2	-3.17	15.3	17.6	-2.26
Morris Peterson	36	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.04	-8	-18	10	15.4	17.1	-1.64	15.9	16.7	-0.79
Vince Carter	67	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.47	-27	1	-28	17.0	14.3	2.76	16.5	16.0	0.45
Lamond Murray	34	31	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.38	-24	-2	-22	16.1	16.6	-0.44	15.0	17.1	-2.12
Jerome Williams	56	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	-10	-6	17.4	14.6	2.87	17.5	14.2	3.37
Milt Palacio	52	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.19	-18	-8	-10	14.7	18.9	-4.19	15.2	17.7	-2.47
Antonio Davis	50	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.35	-26	0	-26	17.2	15.3	1.84	16.4	16.3	0.06

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	74	74	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.38	27	-1	28	16.8	13.8	3.04	16.7	14.5	2.24
Gilbert Arenas	50	51	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.18	18	8	10	15.5	17.5	-2.04	17.5	14.9	2.63
Jared Jeffries	53	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.11	15	11	4	17.1	15.2	1.89	15.4	17.8	-2.40
Juan Dixon	39	39	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.17	17	9	8	16.8	16.0	0.82	15.9	16.8	-0.92
Etan Thomas	36	36	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.18	17	9	8	16.4	16.3	0.13	16.2	16.5	-0.32
Larry Hughes	50	49	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.35	23	3	20	16.4	16.3	0.04	17.2	15.3	1.94
Christian Laettner	49	49	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.17	15	11	4	15.8	17.0	-1.23	17.5	15.0	2.44
Kwame Brown	42	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	20	-14	15.0	17.5	-2.52	16.7	16.1	0.56
Steve Blake	27	27	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	30	-34	17.1	16.0	1.16	14.7	17.1	-2.37
Brendan Haywood	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	28	-30	16.7	16.3	0.41	13.0	16.8	-3.82
Chris Whitney	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	28	-30	16.7	16.3	0.41	13.0	16.8	-3.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 80, MEM 113	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
SEA 112, BOS 126	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
WAS 78, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%