NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	89		Excitement	5.8 [649]		MVP	Gary Trent (MIN): +14.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Comeback	1.0 [1183]		LVP	Damon Jones (MIL): -12.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.01	7	87%	0.13	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	12	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	17	47%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	12	53%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	17	33%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	11	50%	-0.03	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.08	-0.01	11	58%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.02	23	48%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Keith McLeod	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	10	46%	0.00	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	18	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	13	47%	-0.01	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	27.0	15.8	25.5	2.0	34.4	129.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +27.8%

MIL -6.8%

MIN +6.4%

MIN +18.2%

MIN +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIN	NBA	MIL	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	15.8	15.7	98.9	103.3	100.5
season	15.3	15.6		103.6	103.2
opponent	16.1	15.5		98.4	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.2	16.2	14.7	15.4	15.9
MIN	12.8	16.5	17.2	16.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	5	6	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-7	8	19.6	15.7	3.92	21.7	15.3	6.33
Michael Redd	67	68	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.21	4	-10	14	15.4	17.3	-1.94	14.9	18.3	-3.44
Desmond Mason	52	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-8	10	15.2	16.8	-1.54	17.4	13.4	3.97
Toni Kukoc	24	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-2	-2	17.7	15.2	2.47	18.0	14.9	3.14
Joe Smith	70	71	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	15.4	17.8	-2.44	14.7	19.2	-4.52
Erick Strickland	53	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-8	10	15.6	16.3	-0.63	16.6	14.6	2.04
Damon Jones	43	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	1	-8	16.3	15.6	0.68	15.9	15.6	0.22
Brian Skinner	81	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	3	-12	15.6	18.6	-2.95	15.5	17.7	-2.19
Tim Thomas	55	56	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.03	-19	13	-32	17.1	14.0	3.06	14.4	17.9	-3.56

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	81	81	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.29	6	0	6	14.9	21.7	-6.79	15.5	19.4	-3.94
Gary Trent	43	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	-1	8	16.0	15.6	0.38	17.1	14.9	2.20
Latrell Sprewell	78	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	3	0	16.0	14.2	1.81	15.9	15.8	0.15
Mark Madsen	53	51	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	3	0	16.2	15.2	0.99	15.3	16.6	-1.31
Sam Cassell	77	75	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	2	2	15.3	18.3	-3.01	15.5	17.7	-2.12
Michael Olowokandi	53	51	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-5	16	15.6	15.9	-0.26	16.8	14.7	2.09
Keith McLeod	15	15	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	4	-2	18.3	15.3	3.01	17.7	15.5	2.12
Fred Hoiberg	58	56	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.23	-4	10	-14	16.2	15.1	1.10	15.5	16.6	-1.11
Ervin Johnson	2	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	8	-10	13.5	15.8	-2.30	11.7	16.0	-4.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 90, CLE 93	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.92,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.74,0.71,0.77,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.84,1	94.0%
CHA 103, PHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.85,0.86,0.83,1	93.6%
IND 87, LAL 104	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%