NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	85		Excitement	6.3 [535]		MVP	Joe Johnson (PHX): +13.5%
Phoenix Suns	92		Comeback	2.0 [372]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): -17.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	11	67%	0.10	3	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
David Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	65%	0.03	4	-0.12	7	71%	-0.00
Malik Rose	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	14	51%	0.04	4	-0.13	7	57%	-0.05
Bruce Bowen	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	12	33%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.01	13	67%	0.19	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.05	-0.00	6	83%	0.17	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	17	60%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.06	-0.00	19	53%	0.14	5	-0.14	5	100%	0.03
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.8	30.2	15.7	30.3	2.0	33.2	138.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +37.2%

PHX +13.9%

SAS -16.4%

PHX +8.4%

PHX +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	17.4	14.9	15.5	95.5	103.4	101.6
season	15.7	15.0		102.5	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		100.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	19.0	16.0	19.1	17.4
PHX	14.0	13.7	14.7	17.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	48	46	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-10	13	17.9	16.8	1.13	15.5	14.4	1.06
Tony Parker	48	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-4	1	18.2	16.5	1.72	15.0	14.9	0.03
Stephen Jackson	58	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.21	1	-8	9	17.6	17.1	0.44	15.0	14.7	0.33
Bruce Bowen	68	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-3	-1	17.6	16.9	0.67	14.9	15.0	-0.14
Tim Duncan	71	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.27	-1	-6	5	16.8	19.7	-2.82	14.7	16.1	-1.45
Speedy Claxton	41	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-3	-1	16.5	18.2	-1.72	14.9	15.0	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	52	51	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.25	-11	4	-15	17.0	17.9	-0.91	14.9	15.1	-0.19
Malik Rose	59	60	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.29	-16	9	-25	17.7	16.9	0.78	14.9	15.1	-0.19

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	66	67	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.22	16	-9	25	14.9	15.0	-0.08	18.1	15.5	2.61
Stephon Marbury	88	87	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.33	9	-2	11	14.9	17.0	-2.08	17.2	25.5	-8.27
Shawn Marion	89	89	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.9	0.0	14.94	17.4	0.0	17.42
Jake Voskuhl	38	39	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-7	21	14.0	15.6	-1.60	15.8	18.7	-2.93
Anfernee Hardaway	64	62	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	5	-3	16.3	11.6	4.71	18.7	14.5	4.16
Amar'e Stoudemire	41	41	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.18	-4	11	-15	15.9	14.2	1.69	18.6	16.4	2.26
Casey Jacobsen	8	10	0.01	0.48	-0.47	0.01	0	7	-7	13.9	15.0	-1.17	17.4	17.4	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	24	24	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	6	-5	11.5	16.2	-4.66	14.5	18.5	-3.99
Scott Williams	27	26	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.10	-10	17	-27	15.2	14.8	0.35	16.6	17.7	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.71,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.89,0.96,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.74,0.84,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,1	93.4%
MIL 104, IND 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	93.3%
HOU 90, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.95,0.96,0.94,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%