NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	86		Excitement	3.4 [1084]		MVP	Anthony Johnson (NJN): +8.6%
New Jersey Nets	94		Comeback	1.6 [1229]		LVP	Michael Bradley (TOR): -10.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	14	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Jelani McCoy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Mamadou N'diaye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	54%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	-0.00	-0.07	17	44%	0.00	3	-0.04	9	89%	0.03
Jerome Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Jefferies	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.04	15	33%	-0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	7	39%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.03	5	70%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.00	-0.10	16	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	50%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.03	-0.07	17	50%	0.11	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	11	70%	0.08	3	-0.07	8	75%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	3	50%	0.04	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	6	17%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	27%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	30.2	16.3	24.1	2.7	31.3	131.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +37.3%

TOR -0.3%

NJN +7.2%

NJN +1.6%

NJN +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NJN	NBA	TOR	NJN	NBA
this game	15.7	15.5	15.5	93.5	101.1	101.6
season	16.2	15.0		98.8	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.3		96.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.4	16.7	16.6	15.0	15.7
NJN	14.4	12.8	16.9	18.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mamadou N'diaye	49	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-14	20	15.4	16.0	-0.57	15.3	15.7	-0.42
Jerome Williams	57	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.05	-13	5	-18	16.4	14.4	2.01	15.7	15.1	0.60
Michael Bradley	52	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-10	12	15.5	15.9	-0.44	15.5	15.4	0.07
Jelani McCoy	43	42	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	6	-20	16.0	15.4	0.57	15.7	15.3	0.42
Morris Peterson	88	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-6	4	15.6	17.2	-1.65	15.6	13.6	1.97
Chris Jefferies	83	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	4	-16	15.4	18.4	-3.07	15.1	18.6	-3.52
Rafer Alston	88	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	-1	-6	15.6	16.2	-0.60	15.5	13.0	2.54

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	73	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-5	18	15.1	16.7	-1.64	16.1	14.0	2.11
Jason Kidd	73	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-2	12	15.5	15.2	0.27	16.0	14.3	1.71
Richard Jefferson	61	61	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	-6	20	14.5	17.3	-2.77	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Kerry Kittles	52	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.01	10	-2	12	14.5	16.7	-2.14	15.9	15.4	0.48
Rodney Rogers	40	39	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	11	-14	16.7	14.5	2.22	15.9	15.5	0.43
Aaron Williams	25	23	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.24	-1	9	-10	14.4	15.9	-1.45	14.2	16.2	-2.00
Lucious Harris	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	10	-12	16.7	14.5	2.14	15.4	15.9	-0.48
Dikembe Mutombo	30	30	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	4	0	16.2	15.1	1.09	16.1	15.5	0.68
Jason Collins	38	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	3	2	15.6	15.4	0.20	16.2	15.3	0.92
Anthony Johnson	20	19	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	10	-12	15.2	15.5	-0.27	14.3	16.0	-1.71
Brian Scalabrine	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.24	-8	16	-24	18.2	15.0	3.20	12.3	16.1	-3.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 85, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
DET 65, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
VAN 87, SAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%