NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	86		Excitement	8.6 [168]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +17.4%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	11.6 [104]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -47.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	9	73%	0.13	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Kedrick Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	12	42%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.00	17	60%	0.14	3	-0.15	1	100%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	4	36%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Grant Long	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.04	-0.01	6	23%	0.01	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
J.R. Bremer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.48	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.1,-0.48	-0.13	-0.36	-0.01	17	51%	-0.28	5	-0.20	15	73%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.07	0.02	4	125%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,0.17	0.17	-0.06	0.23	-0.00	12	53%	0.30	4	-0.13	6	83%	0.03
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.08	-0.00	3	75%	0.12	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.05
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.14,-0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.01	30	53%	0.10	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.03
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	5	64%	0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Pat Burke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	7	56%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	8	12%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	30.4	16.4	30.4	2.4	34.3	141.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +48.5%

BOS -0.3%

BOS -12.6%

ORL +12.4%

ORL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.2	15.5	94.5	96.7	101.6
season	15.6	14.6		99.3	102.7
opponent	15.8	15.5		103.1	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.3	16.7	14.1	18.1	16.3
ORL	13.1	14.6	17.2	16.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Bremer	43	44	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.13	1	-4	5	14.8	17.6	-2.83	16.2	14.3	1.85
Grant Long	8	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	1	-5	16.6	16.3	0.37	15.9	15.1	0.72
Kedrick Brown	25	25	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-2	1	16.1	16.4	-0.28	14.2	15.6	-1.31
Eric Williams	74	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-9	15	16.0	17.7	-1.75	15.0	16.5	-1.54
Antoine Walker	80	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.41	6	-9	15	16.3	15.8	0.53	15.3	14.6	0.64
Mark Blount	37	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	10	-23	16.1	16.4	-0.39	14.8	15.5	-0.73
Walter McCarty	62	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.57	7	-10	17	16.5	15.7	0.82	15.6	14.3	1.38
Paul Pierce	77	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	5	-13	16.6	14.6	2.03	15.6	12.9	2.78
Tony Delk	49	49	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.58	-9	6	-15	17.4	15.0	2.39	14.0	16.5	-2.51

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	45	46	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.55	6	-3	9	16.1	14.3	1.79	15.0	17.6	-2.69
Tracy McGrady	74	73	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.42	9	-6	15	14.6	17.8	-3.28	16.8	14.2	2.57
Andrew DeClercq	34	34	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-6	15	15.2	15.2	0.06	18.5	15.0	3.49
Gordan Giricek	84	83	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.47	-2	5	-7	15.5	11.9	3.64	16.4	15.4	1.00
Pat Garrity	60	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.55	-5	8	-13	15.0	15.6	-0.61	16.3	16.2	0.10
Pat Burke	28	29	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.11	4	-1	5	17.1	14.3	2.80	14.9	16.9	-2.04
Steven Hunter	38	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	3	-3	14.9	15.4	-0.56	16.5	16.1	0.40
Jacque Vaughn	47	46	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	4	-5	14.3	16.1	-1.79	17.5	15.0	2.50
Jeryl Sasser	32	33	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	7	-11	15.7	14.9	0.80	14.8	17.1	-2.35
Shawn Kemp	18	17	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.09	-1	4	-5	13.7	15.6	-1.83	13.9	16.8	-2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.33,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.17,0.47,0.36,0.15,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.31,0.15,0.15,0.08,1	90.6%
PHI 100, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.02,0.04,1	89.4%
LAC 90, PHX 93	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.21,0.27,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.55,0.46,0.33,0.42,1	89.1%